A series of coordinated
attacks occurred Thursday along Israel’s border with Egypt. While each attack
was relatively small, the incidents indicate some degree of coordination among
the attackers. Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak attributed the attacks to
elements emanating from the Gaza Strip, while Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
tactical reports stated that the attacks had been launched from across Israel’s
border with Egypt along the Sinai peninsula. No one has yet claimed
responsibility.
Israel has plenty of
experience in dealing with threats from militants in Gaza. In response, Israel
often conducts preemptive as well as retaliatory airstrikes using real-time
intelligence. In addition, whenever things appear to be getting out of control,
the IDF conducts a major ground offensive.
Attacks inside Israel have
become a rare occurrence. Weakened capability and shifting strategic
imperatives have caused Hamas and other militant groups to largely refrain from
such attacks. Most attacks usually consist of the firing of rockets from Gaza,
a practice Hamas has an interest in both limiting as well as calibrating to
enhance its control over the Strip.
In light of recent unrest in
the Arab world and the new political and security reality in Egypt, these
latest attacks in Israel potentially represent a new kind of threat — one posed
by transnational jihadists who have long wanted to undermine Egypt without
operational success. It is quite possible that al Qaeda is trying to exploit
the post-Mubarak political environment to mobilize its Sinai- and Gaza-based
assets in order to create an Egyptian-Israeli crisis that can (potentially)
undermine Cairo’s stability.
Egypt After Mubarak
Under the police state run by
ousted President Hosni Mubarak, Egypt successfully kept political Islamists
restrained, neutralizing the threat from jihadist groups. The unrest that broke
out in the Arab world earlier this year has altered the domestic political
reality in Egypt. Mubarak’s fall from power in the wake of popular agitation
and the Egyptian military regime’s obligated engagement in political reforms
have created a new environment — one in which autocratic measures have become
largely obsolete.
Egypt’s rolling back of the
police state and subsequent political reforms have made it difficult to
maintain domestic security and keep militants under control. Indeed, militants
are already taking advantage of the political opening. They have stepped up
their operations, as evidenced by attacks against energy infrastructure and
other targets in the Sinai Peninsula.
The new era of Egyptian
multiparty politics has also allowed a variety of Islamist actors to emerge as
legitimate political entities. At the same time, Egyptian national sentiment is
emerging as a major factor in the foreign policymaking process. This change
alone constitutes a threat to Israel’s national security, though it is a more
of a long-term issue.
The rise of different types of
Islamist actors (Muslim Brotherhood, Salafists and Sufists, among others) as
legitimate political entities who pursue constitutional means to come to power
makes it difficult for jihadists to directly threaten the stability of the
Egyptian regime. With even Salafists and former jihadist groups such as Gamaah
al-Islamiyah and Tandheem al-Jihad embracing the political mainstream, the
jihadists will have a hard time gaining support for an armed insurrection
against the Egyptian state. Realizing that they are not able to directly
confront the Egyptian state (despite the Arab unrest), the jihadists are trying
to indirectly undermine the regime by exploiting the Israeli-Gaza situation and
the renewed militancy in the Sinai.
A New Threat To Israel?
Even before today’s attacks,
the Israelis responded to increasing attacks in the Sinai by allowing Cairo to
deploy an additional 1,000 troops to the peninsula. That concession indicated
that Israel is likely skeptical of the Egyptian military’s ability to
effectively deal with this problem, considering current political and security
circumstances. Cairo is under a lot of stress domestically and regionally.
Egypt is in the early stages of trying to manage political and militant
opposition in a tense political climate and it is unable to maintain internal
security as effectively as it once did.
Israel, therefore, will likely
see today’s attacks as a new kind of threat. The Israeli leadership realizes
that the problem is no longer strictly confined to Gaza but has now spread to
Egypt itself. However, Israel doesn’t have any good way to control the
situation unfolding within the borders of its Arab neighbor. That said, Israeli
officials have already begun pointing fingers at the deteriorating security
situation in Egypt, a response which likely going to cause tensions between
Jerusalem and Cairo — exactly what the jihadists hope to achieve.
The latest video statement
from al Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri, in which he speaks of an “intellectual”
effort in addition to the armed one, is noteworthy. Al-Zawahiri’s comments are
part of al Qaeda’s response to the so-called “Arab Spring” — a development in
which the jihadists have largely been marginalized. Al-Zawahiri has long been
frustrated by the fact that many former jihadists in Egypt (his home country)
have renounced violence, attacking al Qaeda and him personally.
For decades, the al Qaeda
leader has longed to be capable of undermining the Egyptian state, and now the
Arab unrest provides an opportunity (albeit not without challenges of its own).
Al-Zawahiri’s status as al Qaeda chief after the death of Osama bin Laden
boosts the viability of this endeavor. In this new role, he is more or less
free to steer the movement toward his preferred direction. His ascension to the
top of the jihadist hierarchy also signals a rise of Egyptians (who have long
held a disproportionate amount of influence) within the global jihadist
network.
The result is that al Qaeda
can be expected to focus heavily on the Egyptian-Gaza-Israeli fault line. This
fixation will not only complicate matters for Israel and its efforts to deal
with the Gaza Strip, it could also begin to unravel the Egyptian-Israeli
relationship that has existed since the signing of the 1978 Camp David Peace
Accords.
Stratfor, August 19, 2011
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