Al Qaeda in the Arabian
Peninsula released the 10th edition of its English-language magazine, Inspire,
on March 1. After discussing its contents with our analytical team, initially I
decided not to write about it. I concluded that Inspire 10 conformed closely to
the previous nine editions and that our analysis of the magazine, from its
inception to its re-emergence after the death of editor Samir Khan, was more
than adequate.
Since making that decision,
however, I have been very surprised at how the media and other analysts have
received the magazine. Some have overhyped the magazine even as others have
downplayed -- even ridiculed -- its content. I have heard others say the
magazine revealed nothing about al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. All these
reactions are misguided. So in response, I've endeavored to provide a more balanced
assessment that can be placed in a more appropriate perspective.
I am certainly not among those
who want to sensationalize the threat the magazine poses. Inspire 10 is not
going to launch the grassroots jihadist apocalypse al Qaeda in the Arabian
Peninsula seeks to foment any more successfully than the magazine's previous
nine editions. The fact that a photograph of Austin, Texas, appears in the
magazine does not mean that the city is somehow being secretly targeted for attack
by jihadist sleeper cells.
But laughing at the magazine
or dismissing it as irrelevant would be imprudent. The magazine has in fact
inspired several terrorist plots. In some cases, the connections to the
magazine have been obvious, as in cases where plotters have attempted to assemble
improvised explosive devices using instructions provided in Inspire magazine's
first edition. This happened in July 2011, when U.S. Army Pfc. Naser Jason Abdo
was arrested as he attempted to assemble explosive devices he planned to use in
an attack against a restaurant in Killeen, Texas, that was popular with
soldiers from nearby Fort Hood.
In November 2011, the New York
Police Department arrested Jose Pimentel, also known as Muhammad Yusuf, a
27-year-old Dominican-American. Pimentel was arrested at an apartment in
Manhattan as he was allegedly constructing homemade improvised explosive
devices, again following the instructions provided in Inspire.
Other cases have not been as
blatant as those involving Abdo and Pimentel. However, they have involved individuals
who were radicalized or motivated by Inspire. As recently as March 15, three
men in the United Kingdom pleaded guilty to terrorism charges related to
attending terrorism training camps in Pakistan. The men allegedly were
motivated by Inspire. They had discussed attack ideas from the magazine, and
the wife of one of the men was convicted in December 2012 on charges of
possessing two digital copies of the magazine on a memory card.
There are several other recent and notable cases connected to Inspire
magazine.
On Nov. 29, 2012, two brothers
from Florida, Raees Alam Qazi and Sheheryar Alam Qazi, were arrested and
charged with plotting attacks in New York. Prosecutors noted that the pair had
been motivated by Inspire magazine.
On Oct. 17, 2012, Bangladeshi
national Quazi Nafis was arrested as part of an FBI sting operation after he
attempted to detonate a vehicle bomb outside New York's Federal Reserve Bank.
Nafis reportedly was an avid reader of Inspire magazine.
On Sept. 15, 2012, Adel Daoud,
another avid Inspire reader, was arrested after he parked a Jeep Cherokee
outside a Chicago bar and attempted to detonate the bomb he thought it
contained. His was also an FBI sting operation.
On April 25, 2012, four men
were arrested in the British town of Luton and charged with plotting attacks
against a British army base. The four were also charged with downloading and
possessing six editions of Inspire magazine. They pleaded guilty March 1, 2013.
Target Audience
Some commentators have noted
that most of the suspects arrested in connection with these plots were fairly
hapless and clueless -- the type of individuals we have long referred to as
"Kramer jihadists." Though partly incompetent, these grassroots
operatives are exactly the demographic al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula is
targeting for radicalization and mobilization.
Inspire seeks to reach amateur
terrorists living in the West; professional terrorists already know how to
create pipe bombs. For this reason, the magazine urges amateurs to undertake
simple attacks rather than the complex attacks. Too often they find assistance
from an FBI informant.
It is a grave error to dismiss
Kramer jihadists and assume they pose no threat. They can indeed kill people if
they heed the advice of al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and conduct simple
attacks that are within their capability. That is what Maj. Nidal Hasan did in
Fort Hood in November 2009 and what Abdulhakim Mujahid Muhammad, also known as
Carlos Bledsoe, did in June 2009. Both men were inspired to action by al Qaeda
in the Arabian Peninsula.
Kramer jihadists can also be
deadly if they actually find a real terrorist, rather than a government
informant, to assist or equip them. It is very important to remember that
amateur, committed jihadists such as shoe bomber Richard Reid and underwear
bomber Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab nearly succeeded in destroying an airliner.
Twenty years ago last month, I
witnessed firsthand the dangers of discounting Kramer jihadists when I peered
into a massive crater in the floor of the World Trade Center parking garage.
The FBI had deemed those responsible for the attack too hapless to do much more
than assassinate the leader of the Jewish Defense League in a midtown Manhattan
hotel. And they were -- until a trained terrorist operative traveled to New
York and organized their efforts, enabling them to construct, deliver and
detonate a massive 590-kilogram (1,300-pound) truck bomb.
I also take umbrage at those
who snicker at the thought of grassroots jihadists lighting fires. As noted
last month, I believe that fire is an underappreciated threat. Many people
simply do not realize how deadly a weapon it can be, even though starting fires
does not require sophisticated terrorist tradecraft.
Some Revelations
Despite claims to the contrary,
Inspire 10 reveals much about al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. Like all
propaganda and political rhetoric, its assertions must not be taken at face
value. But to claim that the magazine tells us nothing about al Qaeda in the
Arabian Peninsula is simply lazy analysis.
Clearly, the concept of
reaching out and attempting to radicalize and equip English-speaking jihadists
was not something promoted only by Anwar al-Awlaki and Khan. English-speaking
outreach has continued after their deaths. The group maintains that traveling
to places such as Yemen for training is too dangerous.
That al Qaeda in the Arabian
Peninsula continues to publish Inspire, which takes time and resources to
produce, is also revelatory. The group has been under increased pressure over
the past 18 months. The jihadists have been pushed back to their desert
hideouts from much of the territory they conquered in southern Yemen. Yet
despite these setbacks, they continue to devote resources to publishing
Inspire, they have people with access to computers and the Internet, and they
remain in contact with jihadists in other parts of the world, such as Pakistan
and Mali.
The copyediting in Inspire 10
was also cleaner than the previous edition, which had a major typo on the front
cover. The new editor, who uses the nom de guerre Yahya Ibrahim, has worked
with Khan since the first edition of the magazine. He is a native English
speaker who is familiar with Western culture and idioms. Ibrahim was clearly
influenced by Khan and has attempted to continue Khan's work, but he lacks
Khan's acerbic wit and irreverence. In Inspire 10, for example, Ibrahim
attempts to replicate the insulting one-page "advertisements" that
Khan included in earlier editions of the magazine -- one in particular racially
derided U.S. President Barack Obama -- but they lack the bite and general snark
of Khan. Inspire seems to be more serious and less edgy than when Khan was in
charge. This may dull its appeal to its targeted audience.
Another thing we can ascertain
from Inspire 10 is that, despite al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula's continued
commitment to foment grassroots terrorism in the West, the group is clearly
disappointed by the response it has gotten. The magazine has mobilized some
jihadists but probably not as many as the group would like. Those who have been
inspired have not been very successful in their attacks.
The Open Source Jihad section
also continues to show the low view that al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula's
professional terrorist cadre has for grassroots operatives. They see them as
not-so-exceptional individuals incapable of much more than simple attacks. Yet,
since al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula lacks the ability to attack the West,
the group must depend on these less than ideal individuals to do so for them.
In addition to what it reveals
about al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, Inspire 10 can also tell us some
important things about what tactics we can expect the group to use and what
locations we can expect it to target. Clearly the magazine continues to focus
on targets in the West that have insulted the Prophet Mohammed. It revives the
"the dust has not settled" theme from the first edition of the
magazine and provides an updated hit list of individuals who have insulted
Mohammed, including Terry Jones, the controversial Koran-burning pastor; Morris
Sadek, who made a controversial film that disparaged Islam; and Stephane
Charbonnier of the French magazine Charlie Hebdo.
We have seen several attacks
and thwarted plots directed against these individuals in the past. In fact, in
November 2011, Charlie Hebdo's office was completely destroyed by fire, which
was started by the very type of accelerant and match attack promoted in Inspire
10. We believe we will continue to see grassroots plots against these targets.
Despite the weakening of the
al Qaeda core group and the serious blows that regional franchises such as al
Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb and al Shabaab
have suffered in recent months, jihadism continues to attract new adherents.
And Inspire hopes to motivate and equip them to conduct attacks in the West.
Scott Stewart, Vice President of Analysis, Stratfor, March 21, 2013
"Assessing Inspire Magazine's 10th Edition is republished with
permission of Stratfor."
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