Sim Tack
As student protests in Hong Kong continue,
memories of the 1989 Tiananmen Square demonstrations naturally spring to mind.
Less iconic but no less notable were the Hungarian Revolution of 1956, which
began as a student movement; the 2007 Venezuelan protests, which started with a
group of students demanding constitutional reform; and the 1929 protests in
Paris, which challenged the role of churches in education.
Of course, each student movement is unique; the
one underway in Hong Kong concerns Hong Kong affairs, not widespread democratic
reform in China proper. And yet all such movements share characteristics that
transcend borders, making them an ideal phenomenon through which to study
geopolitics.
Student protests lay bare the social and
cultural layers that move beneath the surface of geopolitics, much like
subsurface currents flow beneath the waves of the oceans. Human geography forms
the foundation of society and thus the systems that govern it. Even if we
regard the state as the highest level of global policymaking and interaction,
these social undercurrents are what move the generations, ideologies and
cultural changes that shape the constraints under which states operate.
Patterns Emerge
From ethnic and religious sects to
socio-economic divisions, human geography is as important to a state as the
physical topography and resources that constitute it. Human geography exists in
all states, and as with physical geography, revelatory, even educational,
patterns emerge over time.
The way in which the ruled rise up against the
rulers is one such pattern. These kinds of movements take a variety of forms,
from peaceful demonstrations and strikes to violent insurgencies. Of these,
student protests are perhaps the most intriguing because of the unique position
in society that students occupy -- they are at the vanguard of a generation
that often differs markedly from that of their forebears. It is at this fault
line that competing ideologies and changing cultural identities collide.
That they are students means they are
intellectually engaged, frequently espousing distinct political beliefs. But to
be successful, student movements must galvanize the other areas of civil
society. In that regard, they are often a good catalyst for change. Students
are already grouped together at universities, often in urban areas, enabling
student campaigns to evolve into broader protest movements. Of course, social
media has made physical congregation somewhat obsolete, but proximity still
simplifies the logistics of political action.
Even under ideal circumstances, student
movements can fail, and indeed history is rife with failure. But more often
than not, student uprisings tend to be part of longer-term social, cultural or
political change. After all, when student protests disappear, students
themselves often go on to become part of a more mature generation that retains
much of its ideological conviction.
Think, for example, of the May 1968 movement
that shook France and several other countries in Europe. Despite failing to
achieve many of its goals as it occupied university buildings in Paris, the
baby boomer generation later became part of post-graduate society, fomenting
far-reaching social and cultural change throughout Europe as the ideas of the New
Left continued to bleed into the mainstream.
When a student movement fails to create change,
oftentimes it will join or be subsumed by an existing political movement,
acting either as a force that advances change or one that that highlights the
continuation of ongoing social trends. France's revolution in June 1832 is a
prime example. The notion of popular sovereignty had been in place ever since
the French Revolution ended the monarchy. The return of the monarchy in 1814,
after Napoleon's fall, however, ultimately compelled students to take to the
streets in what was essentially an extension of the very same social pressures
that had dominated the internal evolution of France for more than three
decades. These particular protests in 1832, eternalized in Victor Hugo's Les
Miserables, were struck down. But the underlying desires of the masses
persisted, culminating in 1848, when the "Year of Revolution" saw the
final collapse of the monarchy in France and generated a broader wave of social
change throughout Europe.
Student campaigns have by no means been
relegated to Europe. The United States witnessed profound student activism
during the late 1960s and early 1970s, when the anti-war movement brought about
countless protests. At its core was a demographic shift -- the baby boom, which
spawned the primary group challenging policy at the time. Of course, these
movements did not end the war in Vietnam; they barely convinced Washington to
end the draft. But they exemplified the trends of the time, namely, the introduction
of a new generation with a distinct ideology.
When student movements emulate broader social
unrest, the results can be dramatic. In 1979, the Iranian Revolution radically
changed the political identity of the country, facilitated in part by students
who stormed the U.S. Embassy in Tehran. The ensuing hostage crisis united many
sections of Iranian society in support of the revolution. Ironically, it was
this generation of students that put down a later generation of students during
the 2009-2010 Green Revolution.
A Society in Motion
Even prior to the current Hong Kong protests,
China has had a rich history of student activism influencing society. In fact,
the establishment of the People's Republic of China itself had its roots in
student movements: Mao Zedong and Zhou Enlai discovered socialism and began to
organize politically as student leaders in the early 20th century. In 1919, the
May 4th Movement, which grew out of student demonstrations, arguably ushered in
what would become the beginning of China's contemporary history when it lashed
out against Beijing's response to the Treaty of Versailles.
Students were also at the forefront of the
Cultural Revolution in 1966. They helped reinforce the personality cult of Mao
as Chinese citizens revolted against capitalism and traditional Chinese
culture. It was student repudiation of university leaders accused of opposing
the Chinese Communist Party that initiated the actual protests, which in turn
started the Cultural Revolution -- something much larger than a student cause,
to say the least.
Considering China's long history -- and the
history of student movements -- the current protests in Hong Kong will not be
the last time China faces social unrest. As a one-party state with immense
geographic, social and economic diversity, China has faced significant calls
for reform throughout the years. And the Communist Party will inevitably face
more pressure as China changes. For China's is a society in motion: It is
creating an urban middle class as its economy matures. Rising urbanization and
private consumption have altered the interests and expectations of Chinese
citizens, and as expectation rise, so too will pressure on the government to
meet those demands.
Along with the emergence of a Chinese urban consumer
class, there has been a veritable explosion in the number of students in China
as higher education has expanded over the past decade. China is spending more
money on higher education to create an educated work force better suited for
the economy to which China aspires. But creating more students creates more
opportunities for social unrest. The ability of these students to function the
way China intends hinges heavily on the performance of the Chinese economy. If
economic growth slows, the potential for unrest hastens.
It is difficult to gauge the ultimate effect of
the protests in Hong Kong. Still, the student activism there reminds us why
these subjects of society are well-suited to protest. Because of their position
in the human geography, students will often be at the front of generational
changes in their respective societies, even if they are not always the most
decisive agents of change.
Editor's Note: Writing
in George Friedman's stead this week is Military Analyst, Sim Tack.
"Student
Movements: A Subject of Human Geography is republished with
permission of Stratfor.", October 14, 2014
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