Andrew Korybko
This is the English-language version of the interview
that I recently gave to Swiss-based French-language Alt-Media outlet Multipolarra
I’m a Moscow-based American
political analyst who specializes in the global systemic transition to
multipolarity. I was raised by my maternal grandparents, who are WWII refugees
from Slovenia. My grandmother is a Gottscheer, a Germanic subgroup that lived
in Slovenia for around 700 years before having to flee after WWII, while my
grandfather was half-Gottscheer and half-Slovenian. My dad is a Pole from
Krakow while my paternal great-grandfather was a Pole from Kamieniec Podolski
(today’s Ukraine).
I’ve always been interested in
Russia since my patrilineal line is descended from “Old (‘Kievan’) Rus”.
Neither my maternal grandparents who raised me nor my Polish dad hated Russia.
To the contrary, they always encouraged me to learn more about it. I therefore
studied International Relations (with a specialization in Eastern Europe),
International Relations & Diplomacy, and Russian during my undergrad and
then moved to Moscow in 2013 to get my Master’s in International Relations at
MGIMO.
That’s the Russian
abbreviation for the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, which
is run by the Foreign Ministry. While still studying, I worked at the Voice of
Russia, which merged with RIA Novosti to become Sputnik. I then continued working
at Sputnik until 2019 when I left to get my PhD in Political Science at MGIMO,
which I finally received in 2023. My dissertation was on Russian-Pakistani
relations, while my Master’s was on Hybrid Warfare, but my interests are
global.
I nowadays focus a lot on
Russia, but my other interests include South Asia, the South Caucasus, and the
Horn of Africa. That’s not to say that I neglect other regions, actually I
write about them all from time to time, but those are the ones that I spend the
most time on. I’m also interested in West Asia too. I aspire to analyze
international Relations as accurately as I can, and although that’s impossible
to always do so in practice, I nevertheless do my best and thus correct my
analyses when need be.
On your Substack blog, you share insightful analyses on various geopolitical topics quickly. How do you manage to be so efficient?
I’ve been doing political
analysis since late 2013, when I first started writing for Oriental Review, which was regrettably
hacked a year ago and lost most of its archives. I then started working with
Voice of Russia in early 2014, which gave me hands-on experience in the field.
Between those two and my MGIMO studies, I also contributed to some leading
think tanks here, specifically the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) and the Valdai Club. I
befriended some diplomats over the years too.
To be clear, my work is
entirely my own, not influenced by the contacts that I’ve obtained. Unlike
some, I don’t pass off other’s ideas as my own. Actually, there have been times
when some of my contacts disagreed with and even vehemently disliked my analyses,
but I never changed them for that reason. The only times that I change my views
are because of new information or insight as happened with South and West Asia
for example. By producing analyses for so long, it eventually became second
nature.
This led to me forming my own
models, whether of International Relations as a whole, regional processes, or
certain countries’ foreign policies and policymaking dynamics. I’ve also been
publishing original analyses daily since the SMO began, first at the
now-defunct One World and
then at my Substack. On each one-year anniversary, I reflected on what I
learned, which can be read here, here,
and here.
I’ve thus been working for over 1,260 consecutive days, all out of solidarity
with Russia and multipolarity.
Seven years ago, I published a
piece at Global Research (a Canadian-based think tank and analysis aggregator)
titled “Political Analysis in Today’s Interconnected Globalized Society: Seven Steps”, which
aimed to help others follow in my footsteps if they’re so inclined. The seven
steps that I enunciated are still relevant to this day and I strongly suggest
that interested readers seriously consider applying them. Having said that,
this industry can be ruthless, so it’s best to be emotionally prepared.
What I mean by this is that
others might notice, like I did, that some of our “peers” don’t aspire to
analyze International Relations as accurately as possible. Rather, many are
either ideologues who want to push an ideology or opportunists who want clout
and/or to solicit donations. You can tell which folks this refers to by them
never recalibrating their analyses in light of new information. Instead,
they’ll either cling to their narrative or suddenly change it without
accounting for why they nowadays think differently.
Another characteristic of
these folks is their reliance on “5D chess master plan” conspiracy theories in
that they’ll sometimes claim that “politically inconvenient” facts are just
Putin or whoever “psyching out” someone else. A lot of them still maintain to
this day that he’s an anti-Zionist who’s secretly allied with Iran against
Israel despite all the evidence to the contrary, some of which I
collected here in
2018, which is a collection of his quotes about Israel from the official
Kremlin website.
These “peers” of ours are
usually inclined to viciously “cancel” those like us who produce work that
discredits their dogma, sometimes going as far as to accuse us being “spies”
(it happens to me several times a year, including from so-called “influential”
accounts that were invited to conferences in Russia before). Random members of
the Alt-Media Community, which readers can learn more about here from
my analysis about it in 2021, can be even more vicious. I’ve dealt with a lot,
but some folks can’t take it.
That’s why I recommend caution
when entering this field since it can indeed be ruthless and not everyone has
the emotional and psychological fortitude to deal with it. Of course, if one
just parrots the Alt-Media narratives of the day, they don’t have to worry
about being “canceled” by their “peers”. Free thinking, however, comes with
great risks as explained. I don’t care what people who I’ve never met nor ever
will meet think or say about me, however, so it just rolls off my shoulders,
but others are different.
The subtitle of your blog
is “Geostrategic analysis of the New Cold War.” Can you comment on this?
I expected even before I moved
to Russia in 2013, prior to which I lived a year in Krakow to discover my roots
(I’m a proud dual Polish citizen) and prepare for enrolling in MGIMO, that
another Cold War would emerge. I was therefore vindicated when that happened in
early 2014 after EuroMaidan, Crimea’s return to Russia, and what was then only
the Donbass Conflict, although I of course wish that Russian-Western tensions
could have been averted. It was especially insightful to be enrolled in MGIMO
at the time too.
I was able to discuss these
developments with my teachers, some of whom are former diplomats, and
colleagues. What I learned, however, was that many of the former – my teachers,
including former diplomats – thought that everything would eventually blow over.
Some of them even told me that I was exaggerating everything and advised me to
moderate my analyses. We now know that they were wrong, but I never forgot the
impression of important figures here being unprepared for the New Cold War.
This segues into the point
that I want to make about Russian foreign policy pre-SMO, Putin, and Russia’s
policymaking and policy-influencing class in general. Contrary to what many
friends and foes of Russia’s alike might think nowadays, Putin was never some
diehard anti-Western revolutionary hellbent on restoring the USSR. As I
explained here in
early 2022, he’s neither a monster, madman, nor mastermind, but a consummate
pragmatist with a lifelong interest in improving Russian-Western relations.
This in turn influenced the
abovementioned class and Russian foreign policy in general, hence the many
experiences that I had of my MGIMO professors (some of whom were former
diplomats) and even think tank contacts here downplaying Russian-Western tensions
and even denying the existence of the New Cold War pre-SMO. Like Putin up until
he authorized the SMO, which was to safeguard Russia’s security interests
vis-a-vis Ukraine after diplomacy failed to do so, they thought that everything
was manageable.
The notion that the US-led
West was steadily encircling Russia, undermining it from within, and ultimately
seeking its “Balkanization” was – just like in the West – largely dismissed
here as a so-called “conspiracy theory”. Of course, there were some like
Professor Dugin and company that took this seriously, but they were always in
the minority. Pretty much everyone else of influence here was Western-friendly,
if not pro-Western, and couldn’t countenance a breakdown of ties with the West.
To paraphrase the famous
saying, “Russians saddle slow but ride fast”, which in this context means that
it took them a while to realize what was happening, but they quickly adapted
afterwards. Putin repeatedly explained why he didn’t authorize the SMO earlier,
even lamenting that he hadn’t done so, and publicly corrected his mistaken
perceptions of the West, especially Germany, of which he’s fond. This
influenced everyone else below him and now it seems like a lifetime ago that
they doubted any of this.
Circling back to the New Cold
War, like I earlier mentioned, I foresaw this years ago before I even came to
Russia and this was actually one of the reasons why I wanted to be here. It was
obvious to me that the US-led West would continue eroding Russia’s security
interests until this provoked a crisis and I wanted to be in Russia when that
happened. For all its historical faults, I’ve always considered contemporary
Russia as the catalyst of multipolarity, which would end unipolarity and
therefore make the world fairer.
To be sure, multipolarity
isn’t some fantasy scenario where everyone lives in peace and prosperity, but
is simply a different way of organizing International Relations, which I
maintain is better for the Global Majority than a single country ruling everything.
I’m of course fond of Russia due to my ancestral connection to “Old (‘Kievan’)
Rus” via my patrilineal line, but I also never shy away from constructively
critiquing it, including as regards the SMO like I did in detail here in
late 2022.
Most of my “peers” never once
constructively critiqued the SMO due to their ulterior interests that I earlier
touched upon (generating clout, pushing an ideology, and/or soliciting
donations), but I proudly stand by what I wrote because it was with the intent
of helping Russia achieve its goals. As I see it, the SMO has been the ultimate
catalyst of multipolarity since the paradigm-changing processes that it’s
responsible for have forever reshaped International Relations, thus creating a
literal new world order.
The US’ quest to maintain, and
nowadays restore, its declining unipolar hegemony will remain but it’s less
likely to succeed than ever given all that’s happened over the past 3,5 years.
This is what I meant by what’s now known as the New Cold War, namely the
aforesaid, which I foresaw would inevitably provoke a crisis with Russia that
would then change the world. Being here in Russia and contributing to this
process through my work, including as an independent strategic consultant,
fills me with pride.
One of Multipolarra's goals is to introduce
Western audiences to the other side's point of view, as well as topics that are
not necessarily discussed (or are discussed little or poorly) in the West. In
your opinion, what phenomena should Western audiences be following closely in
the coming months?
The US’ Kissingerian
triangulation between Russia and China is the main trend to monitor. Trump
wants to reach a deal with one of them in order to then put more pressure on
the other. It looks like he’s betting on a trade deal with China right now that
could enable him to escalate US involvement in the Ukrainian Conflict with the
goal of subordinating Russia. Nevertheless, if he reaches a deal with Russia
first, then he might try to more muscularly contain China through the US’
“Pivot (back) to (East) Asia”.
This interview was
originally published in French by Multipolarra here.
Andrew Korybko, Substack, August 11, 2025
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