What’s The Most Realistic Scenario In Which The West Might Replace Zelensky?

Andrew Korybko

They might wait until after Russia agrees to a ceasefire (if it ever does) since replacing him with Zaluzhny while hostilities still rage could further weaken Ukraine to Russia’s benefit 

Russia’s foreign intelligence service (SVR) published a report in late July alleging that the Anglo-American Axis organized a secret meeting in the Alps with Zelensky’s Chief of Staff Yermak, GUR chief Budanov, and former Commander-in-Chief-turned-Ambassador-to-Britain Zaluzhny over Ukraine’s future. According to them, Yermak and Budanov agreed with the Anglo-American Axis’ proposal to replace Zelensky with Zaluzhny, which could be advanced on anti-corruption pretexts and “reset” Ukraine’s ties with the West.

Sputnik shared the following assessment of SVR’s report by former US Marine Corps intelligence officer Scott Ritter: “SVR and its press service are ‘not a media outlet,’ Ritter pointed out. ‘They're not there to inform the public when they release information. It's usually done to achieve an objective or purpose’ - in this case signalling the desire to ‘inflict the most harm on Zelensky at a time when he is deemed to be most vulnerable,’ and ramp up divisions within his government, and between him and Zaluzhny”.

SVR’s report followed the Financial Times’ critical piece about Yermak, who SVR claimed had “set up” Zelensky by convincing him to crack down on anti-corruption institutions to justify any Western effort to replace him on this pretext, which came almost a year after Bloomberg’s own critical piece about him. Ritter’s assessment of SVR’s intentions is therefore credible, but seeing as how they and even Putin predicted Zelensky’s impending fall in the past, it remains to be seen whether it’ll happen anytime soon:

* 12 December 2023: “Naryshkin’s Scenario Forecast About The West Replacing Zelensky Shouldn’t Be Scoffed At”

* 22 January 2024: “Why’d SVR Publish Its Prediction About An Impending Bureaucratic Reshuffle In Ukraine?”

* 7 May 2024: “Russia Hopes To Influence Ukraine’s Possibly Impending US-Backed Regime Change Process”

* 22 June 2024: “How Likely Is It That The US Replaces Zelensky In The First Half Of Next Year?”

* 15 August 2024: “Assessing The Veracity Of SVR’s Latest Report About Impending Political Changes In Kiev”

* 14 November 2024: “The US Is Unlikely To Coerce Zelensky Into Holding Elections Without A Ceasefire First”

* 7 February 2025: “Russia’s Foreign Spy Agency Claims That NATO Wants To Depose Zelensky Through New Elections”

Returning to SVR’s latest report, Trump’s new three-pronged escalation of American involvement in the Ukrainian Conflict and his country’s recent subordination of the EU as its largest-ever vassal state via their totally lopsided trade deal might nullify any supposed prior US imperative to replace Zelensky. After all, Trump was just manipulated into mission creep in spite of his well-known spat with Zelensky at the White House in spring, and his new EU vassals already prioritize the proxy war over all else.

Therefore, it’s arguably the case that the West already “reset” its ties with Ukraine even though Zelensky is still in power instead of replacing him for that purpose like SVR said that they’d soon seek to do, which Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Seymour Hersh also reported is in the cards 11 days before SVR did. Nevertheless, Zelensky’s most likely successor does indeed appear to be Zaluzhny just like SVR and Hersh reported, but the West might wait to install him until after Russia agrees to a ceasefire (if it ever does).

That’s because replacing him while hostilities still rage could further weaken Ukraine to Russia’s benefit. Doing so after they end could symbolically herald a new era for Ukraine, however, and also serve as a reward to Russia for compliance with the ceasefire by fulfilling its requirement for a legitimate Ukrainian leader with whom Putin might then sign a peace deal. These calculations make the most sense from the perspective of Western interests, but they could always change depending on the course of the conflict. 

Andrew Korybko, Substack, August 1, 2025

Anteriores:
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