Andrew Korybko
The Constitutional Court would likely have to rule on
this hypothetical scenario due to 2020’s constitutional amendment prohibiting
the cession of Russian territory except in certain cases
RT’s
report on Steve Witkoff’s claim that Russia has made “some
concessions” on territorial issues, which signal a “significant” shift towards
“moderation”, prompted talk about whether Putin can legally stop the special operation without
first controlling all the disputed territory that Moscow claims as its own. He
himself demanded in
June 2024 that the Ukrainian Armed Forces “must be withdrawn from the entire
territory of these regions within their administrative borders at the time of
their being part of Ukraine.”
Moreover, the agreements under
which Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhye,
and Kherson joined
Russia all describe their administrative boundaries as those that existed “on
the day of [their] formation”, thus suggesting that the entirety of their
regions are indeed legally considered by Russia to be its own. Putin also famously
declared during the signing of those treaties in late September 2022
that “the people living [there] have become our citizens, forever” and that
“Russia will not betray [their choice to join it]”.
Nevertheless, Putin could still hypothetically “moderate” this demand. Article 67.2.1 of the Russian Constitution, which entered into force after 2020’s constitutional referendum, stipulates that “Actions (except delimitation, demarcation, and re-demarcation of the state border of the Russian Federation with adjacent states) aimed at alienating part of the territory of the Russian Federation, as well as calls for such actions, are not permitted.” “Moderation” could thus hypothetically be an “exception”.
To be absolutely clear, no
call is being made within this analysis for Russia to “cede” any territory that
it considers to be its own, nor have any Russian officials lent any credence
whatsoever to Witkoff’s claim. That said, if Putin concludes for whatever
reason that Russia’s national interests are now best served by “moderating” its
territorial claims after all that happened since September 2022’s referenda,
then any proposed “re-demarcation of the state border” would likely require the
Constitutional Court’s approval.
He's a lawyer by training so
it would make sense for him to proactively ask them to rule on the legality of
this hypothetical solution to the Ukrainian
Conflict. Even if he instead hypothetically proposes retaining his
country’s territorial claims but freezing the military phase of the conflict
and only advancing those claims through political means, he’d still likely seek
their judgement too. They’re the final authority on constitutional issues and
these scenarios require their expertise per their connection to Article 67.2.1.
If they hypothetically rule in
his favor, the question would then arise about the fate of those living in the
Ukrainian-controlled parts of those regions who Putin said “have become our
citizens, forever.” They might rule that those who didn’t take part in the
referenda, such as the residents of Zaporozhye city, aren’t Russian citizens.
Those that did but then fell under Ukrainian control, such as the residents of
Kherson city, might be deemed citizens who could move to Russia if Ukraine lets
them as part of a deal.
To remind the reader, no
Russian officials at the time of this analysis’ publication have lent any
credence whatsoever to Witkoff’s claim that Russia made “some concessions” on
territorial issues, so it remains solely a hypothetical scenario for now. Even
so, Putin might hypothetically conclude that such “moderation” is the best way
to advance Russia’s national interests in the current context (such as part
of a grand compromise), in which case the Constitutional Court would likely
have to rule on its legality.
Andrew Korybko, Substack, August 19, 2025
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