Andrew Korybko
If the US oversees the optimization of the EU’s
military-industrial complex, military logistics, and other defense-related
matters with a view towards “dwarfing” Russia’s associated capabilities, then
the challenge that Russia might face along its western frontier could mirror
the one in June 1941
Russian Foreign Minister
Sergey Lavrov repeated long-standing policy in a recent interview when he told his interlocutor that
“We are not going to attack any part of Europe. We have absolutely no reason to
do so. And if Europe opts to materialize its threats to prepare for war against
us and starts attacking Russia, the president said that it will not be a
special military operation on our part, it will be a full-scale military
response with all available military means in accordance with the doctrinal
documents on this matter.”
To elaborate, Russia never had
any plans to risk World War III by invading the Baltic States and/or Poland,
whose hostile populations would also represent an enduring security threat in
any occupation. All such talk to the contrary is simply a reflection of what
can be described as the trauma from the darker periods of their shard history
with Russia, the details thereof being beyond the scope of this analysis to
expound upon. It’s sufficient to know that there’s no basis to claims of
militant Russian revanchism towards them.
That being said, there’s no doubt that Poland and the rest of its European NATO allies in general pose credible security threats to Russia, but their nature is evolving and typically cautious Putin won’t authorize a first strike at the risk of sparking World War III. Prior to Russia’s development of hypersonic missiles, US missile defense infrastructure in Poland undermined Russia’s nuclear second-strike capabilities, but the aforesaid arms have since restored strategic parity by neutralizing this threat.























