Five Takeaways From Poland’s Presidential Election

Andrew Korybko 

MAGA and European conservatives win, Ukraine and the EU lose, and there’s less risk of a war with Russia

Polish conservative presidential candidate Dr. Karol Nawrocki narrowly beat his liberal rival Rafal Trzaskowski on Sunday during the second round of elections by 50.89% to 49.11% after losing the first one by 29.54% to 31.36% respectively. Liberal Prime Minister Donald Tusk dramatically declared that the election would “decide the future of Poland” so many across the world became interested in the vote given its growing importance in European affairs. Here are five takeaways from what just happened:

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1. This Is The First Conservative Victory In Europe Since September 2023

Not since Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico’s return to office after his country’s parliamentary elections in September 2023 has there been a conservative victory in Europe till now. Liberals won in Moldova last November, Germany in February, and Romania last month. Having broken the trend, Poland proved that conservatism isn’t the lost cause that the liberals misrepresented it as being after those elections. In fact, as the region’s largest country, what just happened in Poland might influence others’ next elections too.

2. Populist-Nationalists Rallied Behind The Conservative As The Lesser Evil

The first round saw populist-nationalists Slawomir Mentzen and Grzegorz Braun score a total of 21.15% of the vote at 14.1% and 6.34% respectively. Most of their supporters then rallied around Nawrocki as the lesser evil, hoping that he’ll remain committed to the eight promises that he pledged to abide by in writing after his interview with Mentzen shortly before the second round. These include protecting Poland’s sovereignty vis-à-vis the EU and refusing to authorize the deployment of troops to Ukraine.

3. Poland’s Relations With Some Of Its Key Partners Might Soon Worsen

Building upon the last pledge, Ukraine is none too happy with Nawrocki’s victory even though they’re now trying to play it cool despite condemning him for opposing its NATO membership as one of his eight promises. Likewise, ties with the EU might once again become strained too, though nowhere near as much as they were when the conservatives also controlled the premiership. The same goes for Germany since conservative opposition leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski believes that Tusk is a literal “German agent”.

4. Ties With Russia Will Likely Remain Tense For The Foreseeable Future…

Even though Nawrocki will likely end up at odds with Ukraine, the EU, and maybe even Germany, and despite him being friends with Trump, ties with Russia probably won’t improve. Like Trzaskowski, he supports the “East Shield” megaproject of building high-tech border fortifications along the Union State’s frontiers. The same goes for Poland’s self-assumed leadership of the “Three Seas Initiative”, which includes dual-use military-logistics megaprojects. Russia is against both on national security grounds.

5. …But The Risk Of A War Between Them By Miscalculation Has Plummeted

If there’s any silver lining to Nawrocki’s election from Russia’s perspective, it’s that his pledge not to deploy troops to Ukraine (which requires the President’s authorization after the Prime Minister’s request) will greatly reduce the risk of war between them by miscalculation. Poland will continue to arm Ukraine on credit, facilitate others’ arms flow to there, and continue building what’s now NATO’s third-largest military, but as long as its troops don’t deploy to Ukraine, Russia won’t have a reason to attack it.

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“Poland Is Once Again Poised To Become The US’ Top Partner In Europe” even more than it was earlier this year when preceding analysis was published. Conservatives across the continent also now have hope of replicating his success in their own countries’ next elections while there’s also a reduced risk of World War III. On the flip side, Poland will continue creating national security challenges for Russia, which fiercely despises the proudly Russophobic party that Nawrocki represents, so this isn’t a win for Putin. 

Andrew Korybko, Substack, June 3, 2025 

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