Andrew Korybko
Trump’s latest angry
post about Putin revealed a lot about how he perceives the Ukrainian
Conflict. According to Trump, “[Putin] has gone absolutely CRAZY! He is
needlessly killing a lot of people, and I’m not just talking about soldiers.
Missiles and drones are being shot into Cities in Ukraine, for no reason
whatsoever. I’ve always said that he wants ALL of Ukraine, not just a piece of
it, and maybe that’s proving to be right, but if he does, it will lead to the
downfall of Russia!”
What’s really happening is
that Russia ramped up its bombing campaign against Ukraine in
response to Ukraine ramping
up its drone one first, during which time Putin’s helicopter was almost
downed after it was caught in a drone swarm while he was visiting
Kursk last week. Zelensky earlier
demanded that the US condemn Russia for its latest attacks after it
was silent all week long, which Trump just complied with despite
remaining suspiciously silent after Zelensky implicitly threatened
Moscow’s Victory Day parade.
As for Trump’s claim that Putin “wants ALL of Ukraine, not just a piece of it”, this is a gross misportrayal of his latest buffer zone plan that was announced in response to Ukraine’s aforementioned ramped-up drone campaign that provoked Russia’s reciprocal bombing one. Right around the start of these tit-for-tat escalations, Trump held his third call with Putin this year, which was analyzed here and included a list of ten background briefings to bring observers up to speed about the conflict’s military-political dynamics.
Although Trump also wrote in
his latest angry post about Putin that “President Zelenskyy is doing his
Country no favors by talking the way he does. Everything out of his mouth
causes problems, I don’t like it, and it better stop”, his ire is clearly directed
much more at the Russian leader than the Ukrainian one. Objective observers can
therefore conclude that Trump is either being maliciously misinformed about the
conflict from his trusted advisors or that he’s manipulatively creating the
pretext for US escalation.
Regarding the first
possibility, although his Envoy to Russia Steve Witkoff is a close friend, some
in Trump’s circle reportedly don’t like or even trust him and they might have
whispered into Trump’s ear. As for the second, Trump’s confirmation that he’s weighing
new sanctions against Russia – which came after prior posts about
this – could lead to him approving ally Lindsey Graham’s plan to move his proposed
legislation through Congress, which would impose 500% tariffs on all
Russian energy clients.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio
also confirmed that more
sanctions against Russia and even aid to Ukraine could be in the cards so the
US might not walk simply away from the conflict like some expect. Of course,
Trump’s latest anger with Putin might just be a ploy to pressure him into
compromising on more of his maximum goals than he feels comfortable with or
could have been an emotional outburst with no strategic intent in mind, but it
still raises questions about how Trump perceives the conflict.
There’s no excuse for Trump
blaming the latest tit-for-tat escalations on Putin, let alone claiming that
he’s “gone absolutely CRAZY” and might even “want ALL of Ukraine”, which proves
that something is seriously wrong. Either Trump is being maliciously misinformed
about the conflict from his trusted advisors (not counting Witkoff of course)
or he’s manipulatively creating the pretext for US escalation. The coming week
might therefore reveal more about which of these two explanations is the most
likely.
Andrew Korybko, Substack,
May 27, 2025
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Anteriores:
Zelensky’s Illegitimacy Might Still Not Preclude Him From Signing Any Peace Documents
The Devil’s In The Details As Trump Announces “Immediate” Russian-Ukrainian Ceasefire Talks
Yemen Taught Trump Some Lessons That He’d Do Well To Apply Towards Ukraine
The AfD’s Views On Nationality Actually Aren’t Extremist At All
Putin & Xi Might Hash Out A Grand Deal That Would Enter Into Force If The Ukraine Talks Collapse
Radio Liberty Let The Cat Out Of The Bag Regarding The EU’s Game Plan For Ukraine
Putin’s Victory Day Truce Is Meant To Reassure Trump Of His Peaceful Intentions
Evaluating Foreign Affairs’ Warning About The Risks Of An Emboldened & Remilitarized Germany
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