Andrew Korybko
While the EU has already subordinated itself to the US
as a result of the latter’s hegemonic power play over the Global West after the
start of the Ukrainian Conflict’s large-scale phase in early 2022, this doesn’t
automatically mean that those three will bandwagon as the US’ other junior
partners
RT
drew attention to Indian External Affairs Minister Dr. Subrahmanyam
Jaishankar’s remarks
at the inaugural Partners for Multilateralism, International Law, Peace and
Prosperity (P4M) Summit on the sidelines of the UNGA in late September. The
gist is that multilateralism is being challenged like never before by “extreme
competition, geopolitical tensions and actual conflicts”, which has contributed
to “The 4F crisis of Fuel, Food, Fertilizer and Finance” that he argues can
only be addressed multilaterally.
The P4M’s joint
statement echoes these concerns and was initially co-sponsored by
Australia, Barbados, Brazil, Canada, the European Union, India, and Kenya with
signatories from over a dozen countries like Turkiye as well as separate EU
members such as Slovakia. Russian geo-economic guru Yaroslav
Lissovolik, who runs BRICS+ Analytics, noted in his
article about this group that it could “build linkages across the
North-South axis between the middle powers from the developed world and the
Global South.”
He expects that “the ranks of the P4M platform could well expand via the middle powers in Asia, most notably such ASEAN economies as Vietnam, Malaysia and/or Indonesia”, which are either formal BRICS members like Indonesia or BRICS+ partners like Vietnam and Malaysia. The P4M also embodies India’s long-running multi-alignment strategy and France’s newfound call for a “coalition of independents”. Here are three background briefings that concisely document recent ideational developments of relevance:
* 2 March: “India’s
New Multi-Alignment Trend Prioritizes Middle Powers For Tri-Multipolarity
Purposes”
* 23 April: “Macron
Is Taking A Page From Modi’s Tri-Multipolarity Playbook”
* 11 September: “Korybko
To Bordachev: Multi-Alignment Is The New Non-Alignment”
In practical terms per their
joint statement, the P4M supports “diversified and resilient global supply
chains, reform of the multilateral trading system, an improved international
financial architecture and stronger coordination on international finance,
digital transformation, artificial intelligence, climate change and global
health issues.” The significance of these goals is that they tie Brazil, India,
and Turkiye more closely to the EU at this crucial moment in the global
systemic transition.
While the EU has already
subordinated itself to the US as a result of the latter’s hegemonic power play
over the Global West after the start of the Ukrainian Conflict’s large-scale
phase in early 2022, this doesn’t automatically mean that those three will
bandwagon as the US’ other junior partners. Rather, while all three retain
close ties to the US that even continue growing in some respects despite
friction under Trump 2.0, they’re expected to rely on the EU to help advance
their aforesaid shared interests.
This could take the form of closer coordination on these issues through P4M formats in the future and voting as a bloc on them at the UN for whatever that global body’s non-binding resolutions are worth. On the geostrategic front, Brazil wants to reduce its dependence on the US, India wants to position itself as a more reliable center of global supply chains than China, and Turkiye will never pass up a chance to partner with the EU. Those three Middle Powers are therefore expected to benefit from the P4M.
Andrew Korybko, Substack, November 2, 2026
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