Poland’s Attempted Judicial Coup Will Shape The Post-War European Order

Andrew Korybko 

Poland’s German-backed liberal premier wants to hamstring the US-backed conservative president’s efforts to lead the EU’s reform into a union of nation-states if his allies return to power next fall, which would save it from becoming a German-dominated federation and turn Poland into a regional power

Liberal Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk attempted a judicial coup on Friday while conservative President Karol Nawrocki was en route to Africa, thus prompting him return to Poland mid-flight to lead the resistance from the front. To oversimplify a complex legal issue, there’s been an over-decade-long dispute between liberals and conservatives over the Constitutional Tribunal, which the liberals and their EU allies accuse the conservatives of stacking. The Tribunal tends to prioritize Polish law over EU law.

Anna Korwin-Piotrowska, who was elected to the Tribunal by the liberal-controlled Sejm but to whom Nawrocki refused to administer her oath on the grounds of a flawed election procedure (thus making her status therein legally debatable), ordered the suspension of the Tribunal’s president and vice-president. She assumed their roles and ordered police to the courthouse, while Tusk’s Justice Minister requested stripping their immunity and bringing charges against them. Protesters quickly gathered thereafter.

Nawrocki entered the premises late at night while being pushed around in the process and reaffirmed that he doesn’t recognize Korwin-Piotrowska as a judge. He later released a statement on X wherein he condemned the “violation of the constitutional order” and “forcible takeover of a constitutional state organ.” Nawrocki also called for the police to depart from the courthouse, announced that he’s convening urgent consultations with the Sejm, and thanked everyone who stood with the Tribunal.

The larger context concerns fall 2027’s next Sejm elections that could hypothetically be held early as a way of resolving the latest crisis, which is the worst in Poland’s post-communist history by far. Reputable polling suggests that the conservatives can return to power through a coalition between them, their new breakaway faction, and the two libertarian-nationalist parties. In that event, backed by the conservative-aligned Tribunal, Nawrocki would be empowered to push through agenda of reforming the EU.

He elaborated on his vision in detail here last year, which amounts to restoring member state’s sovereignty within the limits allowed by the EU in order to transform the bloc into a union of nation-states, thus derailing the trend of it turning into a German-dominated federation. Conservative grey cardinal Jarosław Kaczyński recently spoke about this at length, but Tusk fearmongered that he wants to stage a “Polexit”, which was a cheap ploy to win votes after his earlier anti-Russian fearmongering failed.

This contextualizes Tusk’s moves as a liberal power play, possibly even ordered by the Germans to whom he’s been so close his entire professional life that Kaczyński once accused him of being their “agent”, to prevent a future conservative-led Poland from reforming the EU. Nawrocki became Europe’s conservative champion after Orban’s downfall, and with a wink from Trump, he envisages Poland leading the Intermarium’s conservative pushback against the EU’s federalization in the emerging post-war order.

If Tusk’s attempted judicial coup succeeds, then Poland will become subordinated to Germany, but its failure would empower Poland’s rise as a regional power. Trump and Nawrocki are friends, they have similar views, and neither wants liberal Germany dominating the EU. Trump might therefore throw his country’s weight around to tip the balance of Poland’s worst political crisis since the end of communism in Nawrocki’s favor, but if the German-led EU pushes back, then it could spark another US-EU crisis. 

Andrew Korybko, Substack, October 31, 2026

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