Latin America’s Losing Leaders

Ian Bremmer

Voters everywhere sour on elected leaders over time. Even in countries where opposition parties are weak and divided, unpopular leaders can lose their political mojo surprisingly quickly–and nowhere is that clearer today than in four key Latin American countries.

Venezuela

In a nation that must import almost everything but crude oil, crashing oil prices make President Nicolás Maduro’s life even tougher. Maduro has been in office less than two years, but his party has held power since 1999. The hand-picked successor of the charismatic Hugo Chávez, he has an approval rating of 22%. The economy will shrink this year by 7%. Inflation has climbed to 68%, and unequal access to hard currency ensures that the poor are hit harder than the rich. In Caracas, rates of violent crime per capita remain among the highest in the world. Add it up and Maduro is the Latin American leader least likely to finish his term.

Mexico

Enrique Peña Nieto has been in power just 27 months, and his presidential honeymoon is long over. Sluggish growth, a large tax hike, the presumed murder of 43 missing students and conflict-of-interest allegations against Peña Nieto, his wife and some of his closest advisers have helped make him the least popular Mexican President in a generation.

Yet GDP growth is expected to reach 3.4% this year, more than double the rate expected for the region. Peña Nieto’s PRI party controls Congress, and the opposition also faces corruption allegations. He should hang on.

Brazil

President Dilma Rousseff begins her second term with much bigger problems than she has ever faced. Stagnant growth, high inflation, the prospect of rationing water and electricity, and a scandal at state-owned oil firm Petrobras–a company Rousseff once led–all weigh on her. The percentage of poll respondents who rate Rousseff’s performance as “excellent” or “good” has fallen from 42% to 23% in just the past two months. It’s going to be a rough ride–for Rousseff and her country.

Argentina

President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner’s approval ratings are below 30%. Growth is slow. Worst of all, Kirchner has been formally accused of trying to cover up the deadliest terrorist attack in the country’s history. Accusations against Kirchner began immediately after the mysterious death on Jan. 18 of prosecutor Alberto Nisman, who was set to testify the next day on allegations that in exchange for economic favors from Tehran, Kirchner hid evidence of Iran’s responsibility for a terrorist attack on a Jewish community center in Buenos Aires that killed 85 people in 1994. Kirchner is lucky her term will end later this year before mounting political and legal problems can finish her off. 

Ian Bremmer, TIME, March 9, 2015 

Foreign-affairs columnist Bremmer is the president of Eurasia Group, a political-risk consultancy