First Impressions Of The Surprise US-Iranian Ceasefire

Andrew Korybko 

The victor only be confidently determined upon the conclusion of a peace deal based on the fate of Iran’s enriched uranium, nuclear program, missile program, oil exports to China, and the petroyuan

The US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, the details of which haven’t been confirmed by both, that averted Trump’s threat to destroy Iran, The alleged statement by Iran’s Supreme National Security Council that CNN and others shared was condemned as fake by Trump, who shared Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi’s vague X post on his Truth Social account instead. Whatever the truth about the terms may be, US-Iranian talks will resume in Islamabad on Friday. Here are five preliminary thoughts:

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1. Israel Won’t Wage War On Iran Without The US

While Israel might have wanted the US to achieve their shared goals through military means, it won’t obnoxiously impede the implementation of the ceasefire so as to not risk the the US hanging it out to dry, ergo its acceptance of this decision that thus facilities Friday’s planned talks. If those two’s negotiations stall, then Israel might try to provoke Iran into resuming full-fledged hostilities if it senses that the US would join in, though it’s unlikely to attempt this if it senses that the talks are going well.

2. Multisided Security Guarantees Are Likely Required

Iran requires the US withdrawing its forces from the Gulf, whether to the status quo ante bellum, more than that, or entirely. Meanwhile, the US and Israel demand the removal of Iran’s enriched uranium, at least international monitoring of its nuclear program, and curbs on its missile program at minimum. US sanctions, including secondary ones, could snapback if war resumes. As for the Gulf, the UAE and Israel might become military allies, while the rest of the region militarily consolidates under Saudi leadership.

3. The US Probably Won’t Accept The Petroyuan

The petroyuan, which refers to Iran’s alleged requirement of payment in yuan for safe transit across the strait, probably won’t figure into any peace deal. The US would rather that Iran split payment with Oman in dollars as a form of reparations that would also strengthen the role of the petrodollar than allow the petroyuan to emerge as a competitor. Likewise, the US might also demand that Iran eventually zero out its oil sales to China in exchange for sanctions relief, even if this is only informally agreed to.

4. It Can’t Be Ruled Out That The Talks Are A Trap

Iran never tired of reminding everyone during the conflict that the US attacked it twice already while they were negotiating so it’s possible that it’ll do so a third time too. In this scenario, Trump might have made his threat to destroy Iran without coordinating with Israel and the Gulf Kingdoms, thus leaving them more vulnerable than if they had more time to adequately prepare for Iran’s retaliation. The two-week ceasefire might give them enough even if they prefer that the US doesn’t initiate this sequence.

5. The Damocles’ Sword Of Radical Global Change Remains

On that note, the US has the capability and intent to destroy Iran, which would provoke Iran into doing its utmost to take the Gulf Kingdoms down with it. Afro-Eurasia would then be thrown into chaos as a result of the region’s energy exports being taken offline indefinitely, all while the US withdraws to “Fortress America” in the Western Hemisphere from where it would divide-and-rule the Eastern one. This Damocles’ sword of radical global change therefore still remains and mustn’t be forgotten.

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Both sides have declared victory, but the war isn’t over until there’s a US-Iranian agreement to that end, which might prospectively incorporate elements from former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif’s proposal that he published in Foreign Affairs last week. It’s accordingly premature to declare a victor, which can only be confidently determined upon the conclusion of a peace deal based on the fate of Iran’s enriched uranium, nuclear program, missile program, oil exports to China, and the petroyuan.

Andrew Korybko, Substack, April 8, 2026 

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