quarta-feira, 10 de fevereiro de 2016

Lessons from Trump’s Win in New Hampshire

Although Donald Trump clinched the New Hampshire Republican primary by once again bringing out a large number of former non-voters, a breakdown of that record turnout does not bode well for a Republican presidential election victory in November.

According to official figures, with just 89 percent of votes cast, some 258,479 registered Republicans came out to vote in the 2016 primary, in which nine would-be Republican candidates took part. This figure is likely to climb to well over 260,000 by the time the full results are in.

In 2012, by contrast, with a record 33 would-be Republican candidates taking part, registered Republican turnout was only 243,000.

This means that at least an extra 20,000 voters turned out in 2016 for a considerably smaller field, and the results indicate that almost all of them voted for Trump, along with a sizeable part of the traditional Republican voters.

Although Trump’s victory was predicted by many polls, as was his second place win in Iowa, one important caveat must be considered: that some 227,543 people also turned out to vote in the Democratic primaries, which handed a decisive victory to the socialist Jew Bernie Sanders. Once again, that figure is likely to increase once the final results are in.

This means that the combined Republican and Democratic turnout in New Hampshire will have been in excess of 500,000—a huge percentage when it is considered that there are only around 800,000 registered voters in total in that state.

In other words, the New Hampshire primaries can be taken as a fairly accurate prediction of how that state will break down in the actual presidential election, should Trump win the Republican nomination. It means that Trump would win the state—and its electoral college votes—by a margin of 53 to 47 percent.

This 53 percent vote is of significance when it is borne in mind that New Hampshire is around 93 percent white. This means that Trump does not have the 65 percent plus national white support he needs to decisively clinch a national election.

Even though Trump is running a genuinely a non-racially based campaign, this is not how he is perceived by large numbers of Hispanics, who have taken offence at his completely accurate comments about “criminal Mexicans” and illegal immigration destroying America.

In addition, large numbers of blacks vote Democratic as a matter of course, which means that they are likely to stay with Hilary Clinton or Sanders in an election contest.

Thus, even if, as it now seems increasingly likely, Trump does win the Republican nomination, given the white vote breakdown as demonstrated in New Hampshire, it is by no means certain that he will win the final electoral college race in November.

Therefore, states with large black and Hispanic voting blocs—such as California or Texas—seem destined to select a Democratic candidate in the final elections, no matter who it is. If this does happen—and there is no indication that it will not—a Republican candidate will have to win a record number of the other states to win the presidency.

As pointed out earlier, Mitt Romney won 59 percent of the white vote in 2012—and still did not win enough states to secure the presidential election.

If Trump is to translate his primary election victories into a final presidential election victory, white voter turnout for his campaign has to increase substantially over even his New Hampshire primary victory.

* In a just-released interview with French conservative magazine Valeurs Actuelles, Trump has accused German Chancellor Angela Merkel of making “a tragic mistake” in allowing migrants into Germany.

“If you don’t treat the situation competently and firmly, yes, it’s the end of Europe. You could face real revolutions,” Trump was quoted as saying.

He also said that Brussels had become a breeding ground for terrorists and some neighborhoods in Paris and elsewhere in France had become no-go zones. “Unfortunately, France is not what it used to be, and neither is Paris,” he said.

He also said tight French gun laws were partly responsible for the killing of dozens of people at the Bataclan concert hall last November by Islamist militants.

“I always have a gun with me. Had I been at the Bataclan, I can tell you I would have opened fire,” he said.
The New Observer, February 10, 2016


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