Although Donald Trump clinched
the New Hampshire Republican primary by once again bringing out a large number
of former non-voters, a breakdown of that record turnout does not bode well for
a Republican presidential election victory in November.
According to official figures,
with just 89 percent of votes cast, some 258,479 registered Republicans came
out to vote in the 2016 primary, in which nine would-be Republican candidates
took part. This figure is likely to climb to well over 260,000 by the time the
full results are in.
In 2012, by contrast, with a
record 33 would-be Republican candidates taking part, registered Republican
turnout was only 243,000.
This means that at least an
extra 20,000 voters turned out in 2016 for a considerably smaller field, and
the results indicate that almost all of them voted for Trump, along with a
sizeable part of the traditional Republican voters.
Although Trump’s victory was
predicted by many polls, as was his second place win in Iowa, one important
caveat must be considered: that some 227,543 people also turned out to vote in
the Democratic primaries, which handed a decisive victory to the socialist Jew
Bernie Sanders. Once again, that figure is likely to increase once the final
results are in.
This means that the combined
Republican and Democratic turnout in New Hampshire will have been in excess of
500,000—a huge percentage when it is considered that there are only around
800,000 registered voters in total in that state.
In other words, the New
Hampshire primaries can be taken as a fairly accurate prediction of how that
state will break down in the actual presidential election, should Trump win the
Republican nomination. It means that Trump would win the state—and its
electoral college votes—by a margin of 53 to 47 percent.
This 53 percent vote is of
significance when it is borne in mind that New Hampshire is around 93 percent
white. This means that Trump does not have the 65 percent plus national white
support he needs to decisively clinch a national election.
Even though Trump is running a
genuinely a non-racially based campaign, this is not how he is perceived by
large numbers of Hispanics, who have taken offence at his completely accurate
comments about “criminal Mexicans” and illegal immigration destroying America.
In addition, large numbers of
blacks vote Democratic as a matter of course, which means that they are likely
to stay with Hilary Clinton or Sanders in an election contest.
Thus, even if, as it now seems
increasingly likely, Trump does win the Republican nomination, given the white
vote breakdown as demonstrated in New Hampshire, it is by no means certain that
he will win the final electoral college race in November.
Therefore, states with large
black and Hispanic voting blocs—such as California or Texas—seem destined to
select a Democratic candidate in the final elections, no matter who it is. If
this does happen—and there is no indication that it will not—a Republican
candidate will have to win a record number of the other states to win the
presidency.
As pointed out earlier, Mitt
Romney won 59 percent of the white vote in 2012—and still did not win enough
states to secure the presidential election.
If Trump is to translate his
primary election victories into a final presidential election victory, white
voter turnout for his campaign has to increase substantially over even his New
Hampshire primary victory.
* In a just-released interview
with French conservative magazine Valeurs Actuelles, Trump has accused German
Chancellor Angela Merkel of making “a tragic mistake” in allowing migrants into
Germany.
“If you don’t treat the situation
competently and firmly, yes, it’s the end of Europe. You could face real
revolutions,” Trump was quoted as saying.
He also said that Brussels had
become a breeding ground for terrorists and some neighborhoods in Paris and
elsewhere in France had become no-go zones. “Unfortunately, France is not what
it used to be, and neither is Paris,” he said.
He also said tight French gun
laws were partly responsible for the killing of dozens of people at the
Bataclan concert hall last November by Islamist militants.
“I always have a gun with me.
Had I been at the Bataclan, I can tell you I would have opened fire,” he said.
The New Observer, February 10, 2016
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