Analyzing Aliyev’s Theory About The Azerbaijan Airlines Tragedy

Andrew Korybko

If there’s any truth to what he alleged about a cover up, and once again it’s pure conjecture at this point since the black boxes haven’t yet been analyzed, then that can be accounted for by personal factors and not a national conspiracy.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev shared a theory about last week’s Azerbaijan Airlines tragedy in an interview that can be read in English here. He’s a graduate of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO, which is run by the Russian Foreign Ministry), recently reaffirmed his country’s alliance with Russia, and has withstood immense Western pressure to remain a reliable partner for Russia. Aliyev therefore can’t be accused of wanting to smear Russia at others’ behest.

According to him, while the final version of what happened isn’t yet known since the investigation is ongoing, “the initial theories are also quite reasonable and are based on facts.” He believes that the plane was accidentally shot down by Russia, its electronic warfare made the plane even more uncontrollable afterwards, and officials then tried to cover it all up. Regrettably, nowhere in his interview did he mention Ukraine’s drone attacks, which triggered Russian air defenses and electronic warfare.

It's unclear why that is, but it’s best for the media to ask him so that he can account for this instead of people recklessly speculating about his intentions, which could worsen bilateral relations if any high-profile Russians accuse him of playing a double game. The situation is understandably very sensitive and must be treated that way by the media and influencers. Russia’s interests are to maintain its strategic alliance with Azerbaijan. Anyone who risks that for clout and clicks is therefore harming the state.

Moving along, Aliyev also mentioned that he “categorically refused” to let the Interstate Aviation Committee (IAC) investigate the matter in a leading role since “it is no secret that this organization consists mostly of Russian officials and is headed by Russian citizens. Objectivity factors could not be fully ensured here.” For those who aren’t aware, the IAC is based in Moscow and is connected with the Commonwealth of Independent States. It’ll still participate in the investigation, but it won’t lead it.

Aliyev also said that “Some believe that the plane was deliberately sent off course by ground handling services in Grozny because the plane was already out of control, and there was a high probability it would fall into the sea. If this had been the case, the cover-up attempts would have been successful, and the so-called bird theory would have been presented as the most likely version.” He clarified that he doesn’t want to jump the gun about what happened but is expressing an opinion on “obvious issues”.

Even so, he’s clearly speculating on the motives of the local air control officials, but he also feels the full weight of his people upon him to comment on the theories that many of them are currently discussing. He therefore ultimately placed his understanding of national interests above all else. Aliyev later wrapped up his interview by demanding an apology, an acknowledgement of guilt, criminal punishment for those responsible, and compensation to the Azerbaijani state and the victims of this tragedy.

Aliyev’s theory about last week’s tragedy is intriguing and will certainly find many adherents at home and abroad, but observers must remember that it’s still only a theory and that he himself cautioned during his interview that the final version of what happened isn’t yet known. If there’s any truth to what he alleged about a cover up, and once again it’s pure conjecture at this point since the black boxes haven’t yet been analyzed, then that can be accounted for by personal factors and not a national conspiracy.

Some people panic during times of crisis and behave in very shameful ways that they otherwise wouldn’t if they were thinking clearly. This isn’t an excuse but an explanation of human behavior. It’s not exclusive to Russians and is relevant to every ethno-national group in the world. The speed with which the tragedy unfolded during Ukraine’s surprise drone attacks against civilian infrastructure in the region that day excludes any credible possibility of a national conspiracy in which Putin himself might have played a role.

Assuming for argument’s sake that shrapnel from Ukrainian drones or Russian air defenses pierced the plane right around the time that electronic warfare was resorted to for scrambling the attacker’s flight path, all of this would have happened too quickly for a local official to spread word to Putin. The same goes for the alleged instructions that the pilots received to stage an emergency landing in Kazakhstan instead of somewhere in the North Caucasus region that Ukraine was actively attacking.

The use of air defenses, carpeting the region with electronic warfare, and redirecting civilian flights are standard responses during drone attacks. There’s nothing scandalous about any of this. Something apparently went wrong last week if one doesn’t believe the bird or gas cylinder theories that some on the Russian side floated right after the tragedy and which deeply offended Aliyev as he revealed in his interview. That said, panicking officials might be responsible for this possible confusion, not the Kremlin.

It's important for Russians, “Non-Russian Pro-Russians”, and other Russian-friendly members of the diverse non-Mainstream Media community to remember that Aliyev explicitly said that he believes that what happened was an accident, but he’s very upset by what he suspects to be a series of attempted cover-ups from the initial theories put forth to redirecting the flight to Kazakhstan and then involving the IAC. Not once did he say anything that could even remotely be interpreted as implicating Putin in this.

He too understands the importance of preserving Azerbaijan’s strategic alliance with Russia just like his counterpart does, but now each side’s media and influencers must follow their lead by behaving responsibly and not accusing the other of anything untoward. That’ll admittedly be difficult for some to do given the sensitivity of what happened and the speculation that’s now swirling about, including that which Aliyev himself lent credence to, but it’s for the greater good for them all to exercise self-restraint.

Andrew Korybko, Substack, December 20, 2024

Anteriores: 
Ukraine’s Reckless Drone Attacks Are Responsible For The Azerbaijan Airlines Tragedy 
Interpreting Putin’s Remarks On Syria, Israel, And Turkiye 
Russia Won’t Let The World Forget About The WMD Threat Posed By Ukraine 
Romania’s Constitutional Coup Is Meant To Buy More Time For NATO In Ukraine 

Poland’s Participation In Any Ukrainian Peacekeeping Mission Could Lead To World War III