Romania’s Constitutional Coup Is Meant To Buy More Time For NATO In Ukraine

Andrew Korybko 

Western democracy is just a process for legitimizing elite interests, and these same elites sometimes repeat the process until they get their desired result.

It was assessed late last month that “The Outcome Of Romania’s Presidential Election Could Spoil The US’ Potential Escalation Plans” if then-frontrunner Calin Georgescu, a populist conservative-nationalist that’s critical of NATO’s proxy war on Russian in Ukraine, had won the second round on 8 December. His first-round victory was annulled by the Constitutional Coup in a move that he condemned as a coup, however, on the pretext that his pre-election support on TikTok might have been due to foreign backing. 

Nothing like this has ever happened before. Nobody alleges that the electoral process itself was fraudulent. The only claim is that classified evidence supposedly exists allegedly suggesting that the popularization of Georgescu’s content on TikTok might have been inorganic. When all was said and done, however, more voters still chose him over anyone else. This means that speculative degrees of separation between them and a foreign actor via social media was enough to annual the election. 

This is a disturbing precedent that can easily be exploited by the West the next time that a populist conservative-nationalist with “politically incorrect” foreign policy views wins an election. At the time of writing, a redo hasn’t yet been scheduled, but it’s expected after the new pro-Western parliament convenes on 20 December. About that, their elections were held after the first presidential round, but no accusations of foul play followed. This is obviously due to the West receiving its desired result.

It remains unclear who’ll serve as Commander-in-Chief until the next one is elected, but whoever it is, nobody should anticipate them implementing any radical policies like Georgescu’s. Accordingly, more time has been bought for NATO to organize its reportedly planned peacekeeping mission in Ukraine, even if it’s carried out under a non-NATO mandate. Had Georgescu won the second round and been inaugurated later this month, he could have ruled out his country’s participation in this possible plan. 

Romania isn’t as indispensable for NATO’s military logistics to Ukraine as Poland is, but it still borders Ukraine’s western and southwestern regions that are of strategic importance for the bloc. Even if Romania wouldn’t directly participate in any such mission, regardless of whether it’s carried out under the peacekeeper pretext, it could still let the alliance’s troops and equipment transit through its territory to Odessa for example. Georgescu, however, could have cut that off and greatly complicated their plans. 

Keeping him out of office or at least delaying his victory, if he’s even allowed to run again that is (and the results aren’t annulled again or defrauded like they were in neighboring Moldova), is therefore of supreme Western importance in order to keep their military logistics options open. Even if they succeed, there are still “10 Obstacles To Trump’s Reported Plan For Western/NATO Peacekeepers In Ukraine” that he’d have to overcome, which readers can learn about from the preceding hyperlinked analysis. 

It might therefore turn out that all of this meddling was for naught if no such peacekeeping mission follows or if Romania doesn’t play a significant role therein. In any case, that’s the cost that the West was willing to pay simply to keep such options maximally open, thus showing how its leaders really feel about the democratic process. At the end of the day, Western democracy is just a process for legitimizing elite interests, and these same elites sometimes repeat the process until they get their desired result.

Andrew Korybko, Substack, December 16, 2024 

Anteriores: 
Poland’s Participation In Any Ukrainian Peacekeeping Mission Could Lead To World War III 
Russia Dodged A Bullet By Wisely Choosing Not To Ally With The Now-Defeated Resistance Axis 
Zelensky’s Flip-Flop On Ceasefire Terms Is A Faux Concession 
The Outcome Of Romania’s Presidential Election Could Spoil The US’ Potential Escalation Plans