Andrew Korybko
Creative
economic diplomacy was the key to getting their increasingly stalled talks back
on track
Russian Special Presidential Envoy Kirill Dmitriev, who’s also
the CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, paid a visit to DC last week to
continue negotiations with the US over bilateral ties and Ukraine. His trip was
successful, with Dmitriev claiming afterwards
that “we made three steps forward on a large number of issues” and praising Trump’s
team for their sincere interest in understanding Russia’s position. This came
several days after Trump signaled his growing impatience for a deal as was
analyzed here.
Dmitriev has been described by RT
as Russia’s “chief economic envoy in recent Russian-US talks”, which takes on
an even greater significance given the aforementioned context and Trump’s
preference for transactional diplomacy. He’s also very American-friendly, having been educated at both Stanford and
Harvard, so he’s someone who US officials can get along with and feel
comfortable speaking to. These factors combine to elevate the importance of
creative economic diplomacy in the Russian-US talks.
While progress had reportedly been made on repairing bilateral ties prior to Dmitriev’s trip, the Ukrainian aspect of their negotiations had arguably reached an impasse over Putin’s refusal to make major compromises on issues that he considers integral to Russia’s national security. This explains Trump’s self-admitted anger with Putin, but Dmitriev’s proposals for privileged US investments in Russia’s resource sector and equally privileged access to its enormous market helped alleviate that.
He was the right man talking about the right things at the right
time, which accounts for Trump proclaiming after
Dmitriev’s talks with top officials that “I think that President Putin is ready
to make a deal”, thus reversing what he himself implied less than a week prior
about losing patience with Putin. His volte-face thus suggests that he was
pleased with whatever trade, investment, and resource proposals Dmitriev
offered the US. It also contrasts with the US’ difficulty in clinching a resource deal with
Ukraine.
How all of this relates to breaking the previously mentioned
impasse on Ukraine is that the US might now be more flexible with its envisaged
end game upon learning that Russia plans to reward it with privileged trade,
investment, and resource deals for coercing Ukraine into compromises that align
with Russia’s national security interests that Putin insists must be part of
any final deal. These carrots that Dmitriev dangled could therefore be enticing
enough that Trump revises his peace plan to cater to Putin.
To be clear, Putin isn’t trying to “buy off” Trump, but to lay a
solid economic basis upon which the nascent Russian-US “New Détente” could
become a strategic partnership after the Ukrainian Conflict ends.
Resource cooperation, especially on extracting fossil fuels from the Arctic and rare earth minerals from Donbass,
is assessed by Russian policymakers as the speediest means to this end when
coupled with privileged US access to their country’s enormous market. It also
appeals to Trump and his team too.
While it’s premature to declare that the peace process has now been placed on the trajectory of an inevitable deal, the odds of one being agreed to are much greater than before Dmitriev’s trip, but Trump’s capriciousness might see him suddenly sour on Russia yet again. Nevertheless, Dmitriev’s timely intervention saw him employ creative economic diplomacy to get their increasingly stalled talks back on track, so now it’s up to Trump to close the deal by coercing Ukraine into Russia’s requested concessions.
Andrew Korybko, Substack, April 4, 2025
Anteriores:Zelensky Has No Feasible Alternative To Accepting Trump’s Lopsided Resource Deal
Putin’s Proposed UN Control Over Ukraine Is Well Intentioned But Will Be Tough To Implement
The US Will Struggle To Get Europe To Abide By Putin’s Demand To Stop Arming Ukraine
Will Russia Expand Its Ground Campaign Into Sumy, Dniepropetrovsk, And/Or Kharkov Regions?
The US Agency For Global Media’s Dissolution Could Lead To A Revival Of American Soft Power
France’s Next Quarterly Nuclear Drills Might Become Prestige-Building Exercises With Poland
It’s Time For Trump To Lift Biden’s Sanctions On RT
Nenhum comentário:
Postar um comentário
Não publicamos comentários de anônimos/desconhecidos.
Por favor, se optar por "Anônimo", escreva o seu nome no final do comentário.
Não use CAIXA ALTA, (Não grite!), isto é, não escreva tudo em maiúsculas, escreva normalmente. Obrigado pela sua participação!
Volte sempre!
Abraços./-