Andrew Korybko
He’d
sacrifice his political career, his envisaged legacy in Ukrainians’ eyes, and
part of his country’s economic sovereignty, but he’d avert a much worse
scenario than if he rejected this deal
Trump warned last weekend that Zelensky will have
“some problems – big, big problems” if he “tries to back out of the rare earth
deal” amidst reports that
the latest version of this agreement is very lopsided. It allegedly compels
Ukraine to contribute half of its revenue from all resource projects and
related infrastructure into a US-controlled investment fund, pay off all US aid
from 2022 onward through these means, and give the US the right of first offer
on new projects and a veto over resource sales to others.
These tougher terms can be considered punishment for
Zelensky picking his infamous fight with
Trump and Vance at the White House in late February, but the whole package is
being sold to Ukraine as a “security guarantee” from the US. The argument goes
that America won’t let Russia threaten these projects, which also include
pipelines and ports, thus leading to it at the very least resuming 2023-levels
of military-intelligence aid and maybe even directly escalating with Russia to
get it into back down.
Ukraine kinda already has such Article 5-like guarantees from
the US and other major NATO countries per the bilateral pacts that it clinched
with them all throughout last year as explained here, but this proposed arrangement gives the US
tangible stakes in deterring or immediately stopping hostilities. The trade-off
though is that Ukraine must sacrifice part of its economic sovereignty, which
is politically uncomfortable since Zelensky told his compatriots that they’re
fighting to preserve its full sovereignty.
If Zelensky agrees to Trump’s lopsided resource deal, then the optics of any ceasefire, armistice, or peace treaty would pair with de facto global recognition of Russian control over the fifth of Ukraine’s pre-2014 territory that Kiev still claims as its own to craft the perception of a joint asymmetrical partition. Not only might Zelensky’s political career end if Ukraine was then forced to hold truly free and fair elections, but his envisaged legacy in Ukrainians’ eyes as this century’s top “freedom fighter” would also be shattered.
He doesn’t have any feasible alternative though since going
behind Trump’s back to reach a comparatively better deal with the Brits and/or
Europeans wouldn’t result in the “security guarantees” that he’s convinced
himself that Ukraine needs in order to compromise with Russia. No one other
than the US has any chance of militarily taking on Russia, let alone the
political will, and not to mention solely over their investments in a war-torn
third country whose resource wealth is reportedly questionable.
If Zelensky keeps dillydallying, then Trump might once
again temporarily suspend military
and intelligence aid to Ukraine as leverage while tacking on even more punitive
terms as revenge. The conflict with Russia would also naturally continue, thus
making it impossible for Ukraine to develop its resource industry and related
infrastructure even if it reached a deal with someone else. The longer that the
conflict lasts, the greater the likelihood that Russia will destroy more of
those same assets too.
But if Zelensky accepts the latest deal on offer, then he’d
obtain the “security guarantees” that he’s looking for, thus making him more
likely to accept a ceasefire and then possibly leading to Trump putting further
pressure on Putin to follow suit such as imposing strict secondary sanctions on
Russian oil clients. Zelensky would sacrifice his political career, his
envisaged legacy in Ukrainians’ eyes, and part of his country’s economic
sovereignty, but he’d avert a much worse scenario than if he rejected this
deal.
Andrew Korybko, Substack, April 2, 2025
Anteriores:Putin’s Proposed UN Control Over Ukraine Is Well Intentioned But Will Be Tough To Implement
The US Will Struggle To Get Europe To Abide By Putin’s Demand To Stop Arming Ukraine
Will Russia Expand Its Ground Campaign Into Sumy, Dniepropetrovsk, And/Or Kharkov Regions?
The US Agency For Global Media’s Dissolution Could Lead To A Revival Of American Soft Power
France’s Next Quarterly Nuclear Drills Might Become Prestige-Building Exercises With Poland
It’s Time For Trump To Lift Biden’s Sanctions On RT
France, Germany, & Poland Are Competing For Leadership Of Post-Conflict Europe
Korybko To Newsweek: A Russian-US “New Détente” Would Revolutionize International Relations
Nenhum comentário:
Postar um comentário
Não publicamos comentários de anônimos/desconhecidos.
Por favor, se optar por "Anônimo", escreva o seu nome no final do comentário.
Não use CAIXA ALTA, (Não grite!), isto é, não escreva tudo em maiúsculas, escreva normalmente. Obrigado pela sua participação!
Volte sempre!
Abraços./-