Sikorski Fears That Musk Might Try To Stop Polish Liberals From Capturing The Presidency

Andrew Korybko

They can accordingly either try to stop this through scandalous legal moves that risk a national crisis, which could even ruin Poland’s relations with the US, or they can let everything unfold however it will

Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski echoed French President Emmanuel Macron’s concerns that Elon Musk’s social media campaigns in support of the AfD opposition in Germany and against incumbent British Prime Minister Keir Starmer amount to meddling. He also called for Poland to pass new laws “so that it is the Polish people who choose our president, not foreigners”, which is ironic considering his friendship with George Soros’ son and heir Alex, whose father has meddled in Europe for decades.

It was assessed late last month that “Orban Hopes That Trump Will Help Polish Conservatives Return To Power”, ergo why he granted asylum to an opposition figure who alleged that he was being politically persecuted. In connection with that, readers were reminded shortly after Trump’s historic electoral victory that “Top Polish Politicians’ Irresponsible Past Statements About Trump Imperil Bilateral Ties” after Sikorski and his boss Donald Tusk’s rude remarks about the returning American leader resurfaced.

Trump is close friends with outgoing Polish President Andrzej Duda, who’s a fellow conservative-nationalist that’s stayed in touch with him over the years, so it follows that he’d prefer for his party’s candidate Karol Nawrocki to succeed him as opposed to the liberal-globalist Rafal Trzaskowski. To that end, it’s predictable that Musk might try to stop the ruling liberals from capturing the presidency during May’s election, which could take the form of replicating his existing campaigns but with a Polish touch.

This might lead to him passionately advocating for the Law & Justice (PiS) opposition in parallel with haranguing against Tusk, Sikorski, and Trzaskowski. PiS’ role as one of the most pro-American parties in European history could be emphasized as could the ruling “Civic Platform’s” (PO) “wokeness” with regard to LGBT. Likewise, Musk might ignore PiS’ visas-for-bribes scandal that brought a quarter-million Africans and Asians to Europe the same as he might ignore PO’s robust border security policy.

The precedent created by Romania annulling the first round of its presidential election last month on the pretext that foreign social media support for the frontrunner discredited the results, which was later revealed to have actually been a botched campaign by his own opponents, could be applied to Poland too. The difference between Romania and Poland, however, is that the first’s constitutional coup had the Biden Administration’s backing while Trump definitely won’t back that same scenario in the second.

About that possibility, it was reported last month that Tusk’s government “will propose that, for next year’s Polish presidential election in May, the certification of the result should be handled by the labour law chamber of the Supreme Court and not, as ordained by existing electoral law, the supervisory chamber of the same court.” The larger context behind this proposal concerns Tusk and the EU’s long-running claims that PiS politicized the Supreme Court during its near-decade in power.

The aforementioned report elaborated that “The Polish Government, along with the European Commission and the European Court of Justice, have argued that the supervisory chamber was improperly constituted as its members were appointed by PiS ally President Andrzej Duda on recommendation of the National Judicial Council (KRS).” It’s beyond the scope of the present analysis to dive deeper into the details of this dispute but it’s enough for casual observers to simply be aware of it.

The significance is that Tusk’s government might unilaterally implement this proposal, subsequently annul the results of the first round if Nawrocki wins, reject any ruling against this by the Supreme Court or the allegedly “PiS-dominated Constitutional Tribunal”, and rely instead on the European Commission and the European Court of Justice to legitimize their constitutional coup. Any pushback from the Trump Administration could thus provoke a very serious political crisis with both Poland but also the EU.

If Trump decides to cross the Rubicon in this respect, then he could either threaten punishing tariffs against the EU as a whole, hint at targeted sanctions against Poland’s ruling liberal-globalists, and/or flirt with drastically curtailing the US’ military presence in Poland and possibly freezing major arms deals. The last-mentioned option is the most radical since it risks ruining the anti-Russian basis upon which the Polish-US Strategic Partnership is built but could still be employed to provoke nationalist protests.

Therein lies the other trick up Trump’s sleeve since he could task Musk with pulling a page from Soros’ playbook by using X to incite large-scale protests for maximally pressuring the ruling liberal-globalists at what would by then be another pivotal moment in Poland’s history. Moreover, the footage of any violent crackdown against these peaceful protesters could then virally circulate on X to incite even more protests, which could be paired with sanctions against those officials who are responsible for this.

Tusk would therefore do well to read the writing on the wall and let May’s vote play out however it will, accepting that it’s impossible to completely eliminate foreign influence in contemporary elections due to social media and not daring to exploit that as the pretext for annulling the vote if Nawrocki wins. It’s better to maintain the status quo of a conservative-nationalist in the presidency and liberal-globalists running parliament than to risk a national crisis that could also ruin relations with the US.

The only reason why Tusk wants Trzaskowski to capture the presidency is so that PiS no longer opposes PO’s plans to radically change Polish society. The worst that would thus happen if Nawrocki wins is that Tusk isn’t able to fully implement his legislative agenda, thus perpetuating the political stalemate of the past year till the next parliamentary elections in 2027, unless they’re called earlier. Trump will still be in office by then, however, so Musk might also “meddle” in that vote too with a wink and a nod from him.

In any case, as was just written, social media enables foreign figures and governments to influence elections in other countries. There’s no way to completely eliminate this factor either since the proliferation of VPNs neutralizes potential bans, ergo the importance of prioritizing “Pre-Bunking, Media Literacy, & Democratic Security” instead as argued in the preceding hyperlinked analysis from 2022. These are much more effective means since they aim to inoculate citizens from foreign influences.

Wrapping everything up, Sikorski’s comments about Musk’s social media campaigns in Germany and the UK suggest that Poland’s ruling liberal-globalists are panicking since they fear that he’ll soon turn his attention to their country in order to stop them from capturing the presidency during May’s election. They can accordingly either try to stop this through scandalous legal moves that risk a national crisis, which could even ruin Poland’s relations with the US, or they can let everything unfold however it will.

Andrew Korybko, Substack, Janvier 2, 2025

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