Andrew Korybko
Trump is preparing for negotiations with
Putin over Ukraine as well as with Xi over trade and likely also Taiwan, so
he’d appear weak in their eyes if he let a middling leader like Petro publicly
defy and even insult him without consequence.
White House Press Secretary
Karoline Leavitt then confirmed her
country’s victory in its brief dispute with Colombia, shortly after which
Petro rage-tweeted
a convoluted rant about imperialism and racism as a parting shot
against Trump that was widely met with mockery online, especially from
Americans. This short-lived scandal was significant since Trump proved how
serious he is about leveraging tariffs and sanctions to coerce Ibero-American
countries into accepting the return of their repatriated citizens.
He won the 2016 election in part because of his pledge to build a southern border wall for stopping illegal immigration, but after an estimated 8 million illegals flooded into the country during Biden’s term, he then promised to expel as many as possible if voters returned him to office like they ultimately did. It’ll be difficult to return all of them, however, which is why his administration wants to coerce them into voluntarily leaving on their own by creating extremely onerous conditions for those who remain.
To that end, repatriating some
of them to their homelands on military flights – including
in handcuffs like what just happened to some illegal immigrants from
Brazil – is meant to intimidate them into returning back home on their own
terms, ergo the importance of ensuring that these flights aren’t rejected. In
parallel with this, the Trump Administration is exploring
an agreement to deport asylum seekers to El Salvador, which is now
globally known for its zero-tolerance of gang members.
On the topic, US-sanctioned
Venezuela halted repatriation
flights last February after briefly
allowing their resumption in October 2023, so suspected Venezuelan
gang members might be sent straight from the US to Salvadoran prisons if a deal
is reached. Combined with an unprecedented ramping up of ICE raids across the
country, those who remain in the US illegally will always have to look over
their shoulder and fear either being deported back to their homelands or sent
to El Salvador depending on who they are.
The Trump Administration
rightly considers illegal immigration to be a national security threat, which
explains Trump’s harsh reaction to Petro rejecting those two previously agreed
military flights. If he didn’t make an example out of him, then most Ibero-American
countries would predictably defy the US on this issue as well, thus ruining his
ambitious repatriation plans. Trump therefore had to remind Colombia and every
other country in the hemisphere that they’re the US’ junior partner.
Failure to submit to its
reasonable demands that they receive their repatriated citizens who illegally
immigrated to the US will entail crushing tariff and sanctions consequences
that’ll risk harming their economies and greatly inconveniencing their political
elite. Furthermore, disrespecting the US and Trump personally like Petro did is
absolutely unacceptable in what Trump described as the nascent “Golden
Age of America”, and those that do so will be made to pay the price,
including reputationally.
The so-called “rules-based
order” was never what the Biden Administration mispresented it as being with
regard to the claim of every country supposedly being equal and having to
follow the same rules. It was always about maintaining the US’ declining unipolar
hegemony in the emerging
Multipolar World Order by reinforcing the post-Old Cold War
international hierarchy atop which it sits. A carrot-and-stick approach pairs
with explicit double standards to coax countries into falling in line with
varying success.
Those that are dependent on
the US market and/or military equipment like most Ibero-American countries are
tend to bend to its will while those like Russia that are more autarkic and
strategically autonomous tend to resist. The Obama and Biden Administrations
tried to disguise this reality with lofty rhetoric and by sometimes turning a
blind eye to transgressions from its partners like those Ibero-American
countries that hitherto refused to accept their repatriated citizens, but Trump
is more direct.
He has no compunction about
openly reminding them of their junior status vis-à-vis the US since he’d rather
that his country be feared than loved if he has to choose between them per
Machiavelli. Additionally, Trump is preparing for negotiations
with Putin over Ukraine as well as with Xi over trade and likely also
Taiwan, so he’d appear weak in their eyes if he let middling leader like Petro
publicly defy and even insult him without consequence. These imperatives made
him escalate with Colombia.
The example that Trump just
made out of Petro will therefore reverberate across the world. What he calls
the “Golden Age of America” can more accurately be called the era of US
hyper-realism in foreign affairs whereby it explicitly declares its interests
and then aggressively pursues them without any care for global opinion. Thus,
it might be better for Russia and China to compromise
with the US instead of challenge it if they won’t replicate this
policy, or if they lack the same power or will to use it.
Andrew
Korybko, Substack,
January 28, 2025
The 80th Anniversary Of Auschwitz’s Liberation Was Incomplete Without Russia
The Europeans Are Unlikely To Accede To Zelensky’s Demand For 200,000 Peacekeepers
Analyzing Ukraine’s Attempted Drone Strike On TurkStream’s Russian Infrastructure
Sikorski Fears That Musk Might Try To Stop Polish Liberals From Capturing The Presidency
The Political Consequences Of Ukraine’s Decision To Cut Off Russian Gas To Europe
Nenhum comentário:
Postar um comentário
Não publicamos comentários de anônimos/desconhecidos.
Por favor, se optar por "Anônimo", escreva o seu nome no final do comentário.
Não use CAIXA ALTA, (Não grite!), isto é, não escreva tudo em maiúsculas, escreva normalmente. Obrigado pela sua participação!
Volte sempre!
Abraços./-