Kazakhstan Might Have Just Placed Itself On An Irreversible Collision Course With Russia

Andrew Korybko 

The production of NATO-standard shells hints that Kazakhstan plans to follow in Azerbaijan’s footsteps by having its armed forces conform with the bloc’s standards ahead of what its leadership might have been duped by the West to believe will be an inevitable crisis with Russia after the Ukrainian Conflict ends

Background Briefing

Sputnik reported in early December that Kazakhstan will build four factories that’ll produce Russian- and NATO-standard shells, which prompted First Deputy Chairman of the Duma Defense Committee Alexei Zhuravlev to harshly condemn this development. In his words, “We try to ignore how a seemingly fraternal republic has swiftly abandoned not only the Russian language but also the Cyrillic alphabet. How they’re creating ‘yurts of invincibility’ while supporting Ukraine.”

He added that “now they’re switching to NATO ammunition standards, clearly intending to abandon Russian weapons in the future, replacing them with Western ones. Astana may not have been the largest buyer of Russian military-industrial complex equipment, but the move itself is certainly unfriendly and must be responded to accordingly. We all know what such cooperation with NATO has meant for Kiev.” This is the latest manifestation of Kazakhstan’s pro-Western pivot that accelerated in recent months:

* 30 September 2023: “Kazakhstan’s Pro-EU Pivot Poses A Challenge For The Sino-Russo Entente”

* 2 July 2025: “Why’d Erdogan Decide To Expand Turkiye’s Sphere Of Influence Eastwards?”

* 9 August 2025: “The TRIPP Corridor Threatens To Undermine Russia’s Broader Regional Position”

* 2 November 2025: “The West Is Posing New Challenges To Russia Along Its Entire Southern Periphery”

* 12 November 2025: “A US Think Tank Considers Armenia & Kazakhstan To Be Key Players For Containing Russia”

* 13 November 2025: “The US’ Central Asian Minerals Deals Could Put More Pressure On Russia & Afghanistan”

* 23 November 2025: “Why’d Kazakhstan Join The Abraham Accords When It Already Recognizes Israel?”

* 2 December 2025: “The ‘Community Of Central Asia’ Could Reduce Russia’s Regional Influence”

* 19 December 2025: “Turkish Curriculum’s Renaming Of Central Asia To Turkistan Is Turkiye’s Latest Soft Power Flex”

In brief, the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP) will turbocharge the Turkish-led injection of Western influence along Russia’s entire southern periphery by creating a military logistics corridor between NATO member Turkiye and the Central Asian Republics. Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are part of the Russian-led CSTO mutual defense bloc and the Turkish-led “Organization of Turkic States” (OTS) socio-economic one that’s recently begun discussing a joint military structure and drills.

Azerbaijan, whose armed forces completed their conformation to NATO standards in early November, will help those two follow suit through its role in the “Community of Central Asia” (CCA, the newly rebranded annual Consultative Meeting of Heads of State) that it joined later that same month. The CCA is therefore expected to function as the means for the NATO-backed OTS to “poach” Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan from the CSTO for irreversibly shattering Russia’s “sphere of influence” in Central Asia.

Grand Strategic Context

The context within which these newly accelerated processes are occurring, which were unleashed by TRIPP (and its origins in turn stem from Nikol Pashinyan seizing the Armenian premiership in 2018 after his successful Color Revolution that later led to the next Karabakh Conflict), is the Ukrainian peace talks. The US is essentially relying on the Azeri-Turkish Axis (ATA) to jointly pressure Russia along its entire southern periphery for raising the odds of Putin agreeing to a lopsided peace deal in Ukraine’s favor.

He’s thus far refused, but Kazakhstan’s planned production of NATO-standard shells adds a sense of urgency to ending the special operation so as to refocus Russia’s strategic attention towards its entire southern periphery in the hopes of averting the irreversible shattering of its “sphere of influence” there. Ideally, the US would help manage Turkish-Russian tensions in this space through the five means described here as part of a grand deal detailed here, here, and here, but that can’t be taken for granted.

Kazakhstan’s Anti-Russian Plans

Russia must therefore prepare itself for the possibility of an inevitable crisis with Kazakhstan, and also ATA by extension that might then come to involve NATO as a whole due to Turkiye’s membership therein, after it just decided to build NATO-standard shells. Its new factories’ purpose is to stockpile these shells ahead of what Kazakhstan appears to have already concluded will be an inevitable crisis with Russia sparked by the undeclared plan to have its armed forces conform to NATO standards.

The only reason why it’s setting this scenario sequence into motion is because its leadership has been duped by the West (including ATA and Ukraine) to believe that Russia will set its sights on historically Russian territory within Kazakhstan’s Soviet-drawn borders after the special operation ends. Kazakhstan thus no longer wants to be dependent on Russian military-technical equipment and has instead quietly decided to transition to NATO wares instead with ATA’s help.

This is expected to occur in parallel with its armed forces conforming with NATO standards under the cover of closer cooperation within the OTS or at least within the CCA, which includes Azerbaijan with whom it, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan now jointly drill and consult each other. Conforming with NATO standards, transitioning to its wares, and stockpiling its shells are meant to help Kazakhstan’s armed forces hold out long enough in a conflict with Russia for more NATO-backed ATA support to arrive.

ATA In Action

If Turkish and/or Azeri troops (respectively formal and informal NATO troops who have mutual defense obligations) aren’t already deployed to Kazakhstan by the time that a crisis erupts, and such an advance deployment could also trigger a crisis, then they’d have to speedily be dispatched there afterwards. The only realistic way in crisis conditions is by air over the Caspian Sea, possibly under the cover of civilian airliners to deter Russia from shooting them down, but another supplementary route is also possible.

Casual observers don’t know that ATA is allied with Pakistan, which can be considered an unofficial member of the OTS, so any troops that they might have already deployed there by that time could be airlifted from there to Kazakhstan. This could also be done under civilian cover to deter Russian jets from shooting them down from their airbase in Kyrgyzstan’s Kant. If Afghan-Pak ties stabilize and the PAKAFUZ railway is built by then, Pakistan could also ship military equipment to Kazakhstan that way too.

As a means for either “deterring” or at least “restraining” Russia, ATA might also try to stir trouble in the North Caucasus, which could provoke a Russian response for invoking their mutual defense obligations and thus draw NATO member Turkiye and “Major Non-NATO Ally” Pakistan into the fray. A multi-front conflict with Turkiye in the Black Sea, Azerbaijan in the North Caucasus, it and Kazakhstan in the Caspian Sea, and Kazakhstan in Central Asia (with aid from ATA and Pakistan) could easily overextend Russia.

Trigger Events

The following events could contribute to sparking the worst-case scenario of a Russian-Kazakh crisis:

* Kazakhstan making tangible progress on conforming its armed forces to NATO standards;

* Its increased import of US, Turkish, Azeri, and/or Pakistani weaponry (all increasingly standardized);

* More drills between its armed forces and the aforesaid countries’;

* Freezing its membership in the CSTO just like already “poached” Armenia has done;

* The deployment of US, Turkish, Azeri, and/or Pakistani advisors/troops (even under PMC cover);

* The passing of Ukrainian-like discriminatory legislation against Kazakhstan’s Russian minority;

* Pogroms against them;

* And/or meddling in the “Orenburg Corridor” amidst the external revival of “Idel-Ural” separatism.

Depending on what happens, Russia’s kinetic response could be framed as preventive or preemptive.

Concluding Thoughts

The Kazakh leadership’s threat perception of Russia that’s responsible for its decision to produce NATO-standard shells is based on the false premise that the Kremlin has revanchist plans for re-incorporating historically Russian land within Kazakhstan. This shows that they never took seriously Russia’s reason for the special operation, namely to neutralize Ukrainian-emanating threats from NATO precisely of the sort that Kazakhstan is now on the path to produce in the same mistaken belief that this will “deter” Russia.

So long as Kazakhstan doesn’t pose a security threat to Russia and treats its minority with respect, Russia doesn’t care what else Kazakhstan does, but its decision to produce NATO-standard shells indisputably poses a latent security threat to Russia as explained. Kazakhstan therefore risks creating the same crisis with Russia that its aforesaid decision and consequent military-strategic trajectory are meant to avert all because it let itself be duped by the US, Turkiye, Azerbaijan, and Ukraine unless it soon changes course. 

Andrew Korybko, Substack, December 19, 2025

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