Andrew Korybko
Moldova
is a deeply divided society as the latest referendum results show even if one
ignores credible suspicions of fraud in support of the winning side
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov demanded that
“some evidence (of this purported fraud) be presented to the public” and questioned the
results after a dramatic late turn around for
the pro-EU side that suspiciously resembled what happened in some swing states
during the US’ 2020 elections. The opposition also reported hundreds
of violations while Irish journalist Chay Bowes claimed that Moldova only made 10,000 ballots available in
Russia despite half a million expats being eligible to vote.
It also deserves mentioning that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen visited Moldova earlier this month where she promised its people nearly $2 billion in financial support from her bloc over the next three years. Moreover, the lead-up to this referendum and the presidential election that were held on the same day (the first round of which Sandu won so a run-off will be held on 3 November) saw state-sponsored repression of the opposition, including defamatory claims that they’re backed by Russia.
All of this made Moldova’s EU referendum neither free nor fair,
and the same goes for the first round of its presidential election, but the
West manipulated perceptions about foreign meddling ahead of time so as to pin
the blame on Russia even though they themselves were the only ones that were
guilty of this. They want to keep Sandu in power so that she can shepherd
Moldova’s membership into the EU, which can then be spun as a political victory
amidst the West’s failing proxy war on
Russia in Ukraine.
The reality is that Moldova is a deeply divided society as the
latest referendum results show even if one ignores credible suspicions of fraud
in support of the winning side. After all, Von der Leyen’s de facto $2 billion
bribe only led to an official razor-thin margin of victory amounting to just
around 12,000 votes, or a 0.78% margin. This is due to many Moldovans being
skeptical of the benefits connected with full-fledged Westernization,
particularly in the socio-economic domain.
They fear that LGBT+ will be imposed on their traditionally
conservative country and are worried about the consequences of
institutionalizing their already lopsided relationship with the EU. While
Sandu’s commanding victory in the first round might be interpreted by some as
contradictory when viewed with that in mind, it’s not as clear-cut as some
might think. She won 42.45% of the vote compared to her next-closest challenger
Alexandr Stoiangogo’s 25.98% only because the opposition was divided.
Third-place finisher Renato Usatii took 13.79%, but there’s a
chance that he might ask his supporters to vote for Stoianoglo during the
second round or they’ll do so on their own due to some of their overlapping
platforms. Even if Stoianoglo gives Sandu a run for her money, she might
ultimately resort to fraud to win and dismiss any allegations thereof by
pointing to the narrow EU referendum results. Stoianoglo’s hypothetical win in
spite of her possible fraud could also prompt a Color Revolution.
In the event that she remains in power as expected, whether by
hook or by crook, then she’ll oversee the synchronization of the Moldovan state
with Brussels, which will then likely be weaponized to further crack down on
the opposition with a view towards imposing a so-called “liberal dictatorship”.
Moldova’s socio-political fault lines might rupture just like the ones between
it and Transnistria did three decades ago, however, in which case she might
request military aid from neighboring NATO member Romania.
It was assessed in early April that “Romania’s Draft Law On Dispatching Troops To Protect Its Compatriots Abroad Is Aimed At Moldova”,
which Romania considers to be an historical region that was artificially
amputated from their shared homeland by Russia and then the Soviet Union.
Regardless of whatever one thinks about that perspective, the point is that the
scenario of Moldova’s merger with Romania has
been talked about since 1991, and it could unfold through the preceding means.
Observers should also remember that “Transnistria Could Become The Tripwire For A Wider War” if it’s attacked by Moldova, Ukraine,
and/or Romania no matter whether the abovementioned sequence of events plays
out, though that might be a risk that the West is willing to take for its own
reasons. The dangerous strategy of “escalating to de-escalate”
has been increasingly discussed out of desperation to coerce concessions from
Russia in the special operation zone so this possibility can’t be ruled out.
Even if no continuation war is launched against Transnistria and
Moldova retains its nominal independence, Sandu’s expected success in the
second round coupled with the official razor-thin outcome of the EU referendum
can be spun as a political victory against Russia. Nevertheless, that won’t
change the fact that the military-strategic dynamics of the West’s proxy war on
Russia in Ukraine continue trending in their foe’s favor, which is much more
meaningful in terms of the bigger picture.
Andrew Korybko, Substack,
October 22, 2024
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