Zelensky’s Nuke Comments Are Sensational & Shouldn’t Be Taken Too Seriously

Andrew Korybko

The head of the Duma’s defense committee threw cold water on this scenario

Observers were shocked when Zelensky revealed on Thursday that he supposedly told Trump that Ukraine will either have nuclear weapons or join NATO, which coincided with German outlet Bild citing a high-ranking Ukrainian official to report that his country could build a nuke “in a few weeks” if it wanted. Later that same day, however, Zelensky backtracked during a press conference with the new NATO chief by claiming that “we don’t do nuclear weapons.”

While some folks still suspect that he wants to build nukes and might very well still have the capability to do so in record time if the decision is made, head of the Duma’s defense committee Andrey Kartapolov threw cold water on this scenario in his remarks to RIA Novosti. He said that “This is complete nonsense, they have nothing for this. No competence, no materials, no equipment. Fairy tales about creating nuclear weapons from waste for nuclear fuel are fairy tales for the poorly educated.”

He then added that “Real nuclear weapons are absolutely out of the question. Iran has been trying to create them for so long. Despite having much greater competence, there is still no reliable data that it has created them or not. And Ukraine has not yet started to do this, there is no one to do this there.” Kartapolov didn’t discount the possibility of it creating a “dirty bomb” but reaffirmed that Russia is taking everything into account when assessing such threats.

The takeaway is that Zelensky’s nuke comments are sensational and shouldn’t be taken seriously. It appears that he simply got carried away selling his “Victory Plan” and thus went off script claiming that he told Trump about Ukraine’s nuclear intentions (whether he actually did or not). About that, it was met with a cold reception since NATO already ruled out letting Ukraine join anytime soon, jointly intercepting Russian missiles, and basing their own missiles in Ukraine, which are his “Victory Plan’s” top three pillars.  

What’s most interesting about this scandal is that Zelensky briefly brought up the possibility of building nukes before backtracking despite his earlier comments on this in late February 2022 being one of the pretexts for Russia’s special operation, which Putin referenced in his speech on the day that it began. RT also published a detailed article by an ex-Ukrainian diplomat in January 2023 about her country’s nuclear weapons production capabilities. It’s therefore intriguing that Kartapolov just downplayed this scenario.  

This mixed messaging is arguably attributable to both sides forgetting about the role that nuclear rhetoric played in the run-up to the special operation. That would explain why Zelensky brought it up in the first place before backtracking and then Kartapolov brushed this possibility off as unlikely. There’s also the chance that Ukraine’s nuclear weapons production capabilities have since been degraded so Kartapolov might not have mixed any messaging up and thus unwittingly contradicted his boss Putin.

A complementary explanation for him soft-peddling the scenario of Ukraine building nukes is that he also doesn’t want anyone to have false expectations about his country intensifying its special operation. Putin chose to wage an improvised “war of attrition” after spring 2022’s draft peace treaty fell through instead of an all-out conventional war due to him prioritizing political goals over military ones as touched upon here. He remains so committed to them that he stayed the course even after Ukraine’s invasion of Kursk.

It accordingly makes sense for Kartapolov not to hype up Zelensky’s rhetorical blunder and thus set Russia’s supporters up for disappointment when Putin doesn’t ramp up the special operation in response. From the opposite perspective, however, Zelensky’s advisors might have feared that Russia could escalate so they told him to swiftly backtrack just in case. Regardless of their motives, the outcome is still the same, and it’s that neither side is interested in pursuing this issue further for now at least. 

Andrew Korybko, Substack, October 18, 2024 

Anteriores: 
Zelensky’s Unrealistic “Victory Plan” Is Driven By One Of Two Ulterior Motives 
The US Fears An Uncontrollable Escalation Sequence With Russia Much More Than With Iran 
Korybko To The Media Line: Russia Has Pragmatic Reasons For Partnering With The Taliban 
A Forbes Contributor Fears That A Ceasefire Will Lead To A Pro-Russian Fascist Coup In Ukraine 
Poland’s “Ukrainian Legion” Flopped