The most interesting thing
about the NATO summit, apart from the demonstrations in Chicago, was the clear
tension between NATO and Russia and its allies. For example, no Central Asian leaders
attended the summit, and the leaders of Armenia and Belarus were notably
absent. Although not part of NATO, these country's leaders were invited and
chose not to come. Russian Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev had been in the
United States the day before the summit started, but instead of attending the
meeting he returned to Russia.
On the other side, it was
announced that NATO air patrols in Baltic airspace would be made permanent.
Lithuania followed this announcement by calling for increased NATO military
presence for deterrence in the face of Russian militarization. While Lithuania
does not drive NATO, the decision to make air patrols permanent and the unease
on the frontier between the Russian sphere of influence and NATO is
significant.
The world is not heading
toward another Cold War, and those who argue that all this is simply a
throwback to a Cold War mentality are missing the point. The Cold War was a
struggle between two global powers, and the battle was fought from Latin
America to Asia. Russia is no longer capable of global influence; it is a
regional power. However, within its region it has become powerful. It has
tremendous influence over many countries of the former Soviet Union, and its
military is growing increasingly capable. Obviously, given the low state of its
military 10 years ago, it is not difficult for Russia to increase it military
proficiency. But still, the closer you get to the frontier between NATO and
Russian influence, the more apparent that growth becomes.
There are clearly disputes
between Russia and NATO. One dispute is over ballistic missile defense, but
another, deeper one is the expansion of NATO into the Baltics, so that St.
Petersburg is less than 160 kilometers (100 miles) away from NATO. The Russians
had expected, or at least hoped for, limited expansion after the Cold War, a
buffer zone rather than the movement of the line east into the former Soviet
Union. When that didn't happen, and the colored revolutions broke out --
sponsored, from the Russian point of view, by the West -- Russian fears were
ignited.
NATO did not believe it was
being aggressive in moving eastward. It saw itself as a stabilizing and
democratizing force. Its move to incorporate Eastern Europe and the Baltics was
not intended to alarm Russia but in fact to reassure Russia that NATO was
making certain that the region remained stable and unthreatening. What NATO
intended to project, though, was not what the Russians saw. At the same time,
NATO perceives Russian moves in the area of the former Soviet Union as being
problematic, even though they were not intended to be hostile.
Thus, Russian allied leaders
boycotted the summit and NATO announced permanent air patrols in Baltic
airspace. This is tension; it is not the Cold War. The tension is limited by
the fact that Russia is not strong enough to pose a real threat beyond the
current line, and Europe is far too preoccupied with its internal economic and
political crisis to divert attention to the Russian threat. Indeed, whatever
NATO does in the Baltic skies, many European nations, particularly Germany, do
not perceive Russia as a significant issue.
This is what is strange about
the meeting and the times. Russia is growing stronger and that alarms some. But
most of Europe sees the Russian-Baltic relationship as being completely
irrelevant to the real issues, even as the officials dealing with NATO are
approving measures that the Russians will perceive as hostile. The Russians
will continue to make gestures, even though they are far more concerned with
internal economic matters and economic relations with Europe.
And that is why NATO is simply
not that interesting any longer. It is not only an alliance whose mission -- at
least in Europe -- is unclear, it is also an alliance perched on top of
profound economic, political and social processes that render its concerns
irrelevant for the moment.
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