The United States and Cuba Begin Restoring
Relations
The United States and Cuba on Dec. 17 took
their most assertive step in several decades toward normalizing relations. The
most important announcements concerned the resumption of high-level political
discussions focused on renewing formal diplomatic ties between the countries,
which have been nonexistent since 1961. Cuban and U.S. officials will hold
high-level meetings in the coming months, and the two countries will work
toward establishing embassies in Havana and Washington. The United States will
also immediately relax some sanctions on trade and travel to Cuba. President
Barack Obama announced that the United States would loosen certain restrictions
on financial transactions with Cuba, remove some restrictions on U.S. citizens
traveling to Cuba, and authorize the export of certain goods to the Cuban
private sector. The U.S. State Department will also review Cuba's designation
as a state sponsor of terrorism. Obama has the legal authority to immediately
implement the measures he announced, but he left the issue of formally lifting
the trade embargo up to Congress. Together, the announcements signaled a
gradual process of reopening Cuba to the United States.
Havana has much to gain from starting such a
process, especially at a time when its regional partner, Venezuela, faces
severe instability. Cuba fears that a declining Venezuelan economy will limit
one of the island nation's sources of financing and low-cost petroleum
shipments while it is attempting to transition toward a new leadership and
economic model.
However, a formal end to the embargo is a long
way off. The United States' Cuban Liberty and Democratic Solidarity Act of 1996
requires visible progress toward Cuban concessions such as liberalizing
political activity, holding free elections and dissolving state security
bodies. Nonetheless, the measures announced by Obama will allow the
administration to deepen ties with Havana before it approaches Congress to
request the lifting of sanctions. Talks between U.S. and Cuban officials will
continue into the next year, with the April summit of the Organization of
American States serving as the largest public forum at which the two sides can
meet. Given Cuban President Raul Castro's advanced age, it is likely the talks
will discuss an eventual political transition in the country.
A more immediate question is how the budding
rapprochement between the United States and Cuba will affect the behavior of
Venezuela, Cuba's most important ally in Latin America. Cuba shares
intelligence with Venezuela, enabling Caracas to detect threats from within the
country — though at the cost of fomenting discontent within the Venezuelan
armed forces. While Cuba's rapprochement with the United States may not
immediately change Caracas' relationship with Havana, Venezuela's mounting
economic distress and potential for unrest may make it see Cuba's improved ties
with the United States as a potential threat in the long run.
Ultimately, Venezuela's future will rely on
global oil prices and Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro's ability to
simultaneously manage unrest on the streets and from challengers within the
government. The coming year will be a critical one for Maduro, and he is
looking for any lifelines that could provide an economic reprieve. With Cuba
openly engaging the United States, Maduro may have an additional incentive to
seek his own rapprochement with the United States. In fact, several hours after
the U.S.-Cuba prisoner swap was announced, Maduro publicly said Venezuela would
be willing to improve its stagnant political ties with the United States.
Maduro would not be starting from scratch.
Earlier this year, he designated an ambassadorial nominee to the United States
and held discussions — albeit inconclusive ones — with Washington to restore
normal diplomatic relations. Over the past year, several reports emerged that
Caracas was negotiating the resumption of direct counternarcotic activities
with the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration, though no deal has been reached
yet. These discussions could be renewed as a result of today's agreements between
Cuba and the United States.
Restoring relations with the United States will
not solve all of Maduro's problems, however. Venezuela's plummeting economy and
its negative impact on the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela is
largely the result of long-term structural problems that cannot be easily
reversed. It is highly unlikely that Maduro will be able to address these
problems without incurring major political costs. Consequently, restoring
political ties with the United States will depend more on domestic factors than
moves from Obama or a subsequent U.S. president.
Regardless, today's developments signal the
first step in a long process of reconciliation. While the details of the
rapprochement have yet to be solidified, Obama's announcement sets a clear goal
for U.S.-Cuban relations, one that could have broader implications throughout
the region.
"The
United States and Cuba Begin Restoring Relations is republished with
permission of Stratfor.",
December 18, 2014
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