Ian Bremmer
After years of waiting,
Judgment Day for Britain and the E.U. is almost here. On June 23, voters in the
United Kingdom will decide whether their country should remain a member of the
E.U. The outcome remains very much in doubt, but we can say with confidence
that a vote in favor of “Brexit” would create lasting uncertainty and
considerable market turmoil. The volatility could last for years.
Current polling suggests a
tight finish. The “Remain” campaign looks to have a lead, but its margins
appear to be narrowing, and those who say they’re most likely to vote still
favor Brexit. The “Leave” campaign has shifted its message to focus on the high
levels of E.U. immigration into the U.K., stoking fears that open cross-border
traffic could allow Europe’s migrant crisis and terrorism risks to threaten
Britons’ economic and national security. All competitive elections are decided
by turnout, and it’s not yet clear whether fear of the potential economic impact
of divorce from the world’s largest economic club will trump British anger at
European bureaucracy and worry that Europe’s problems will spill into the U.K.
Also unclear is the true
economic impact of a potential vote for Brexit. The British Treasury released a
report in April that forecast a substantial loss of household wealth over time,
along with falling exports, rising prices and a possible recession. The
International Monetary Fund and the Bank of England have also warned of the
recession risk. But leading advocates of Brexit dismiss these warnings as
scaremongering that fails to acknowledge the full economic benefits of a
lighter regulatory burden and new trade deals that could follow Britain’s
withdrawal. Open Europe, a think tank that has been skeptical of the E.U., has
argued that Brexit would create a permanent boost for the British economy.
Multiple studies have produced a broad range of estimates, leaving each side to
charge the other with bias–and leaving voters wondering if any of these reports
can be believed.
We can forecast with
confidence, however, that a vote to leave the E.U. would create a period of
lasting uncertainty for Britain and its economy. It’s reasonable to assume that
the Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron, who has campaigned hard for the
Remain side, would be forced to resign. The most obvious replacement would be
former London mayor Boris Johnson, the face of the Leave campaign, who once
promised to follow the Brexit vote with a referendum in support of a new E.U. treaty
that is “fairer” to Britain.
Yet Johnson has gone quiet on
this subject. He seems to recognize that European governments have no incentive
to reward a departing Britain with a new deal. That would encourage populists
in every country in the E.U. to push for their own new agreements–with threats
to stage their own exit referendums to boost their leverage. An online poll
published last month found that 45% of 6,000-plus respondents in Germany,
France, Italy, Belgium, Spain, Sweden, Hungary and Poland want their
governments to hold an E.U. membership referendum.
The same logic applies to new
trade deals with E.U. member states, which Britain would have to negotiate
post-Brexit. That would take years to complete, and other governments would
have every incentive to drive exceptionally hard bargains. In the meantime,
market uncertainty would sap confidence in Britain’s business and investment
environment. Some in Britain’s Leave campaign argue that trade deals with
Europe can be replaced with a new agreement with the U.S. That’s unlikely,
given the wave of antitrade sentiment across the Atlantic. Both Donald Trump
and Bernie Sanders have argued that recent trade deals have killed U.S. jobs,
and Hillary Clinton has run for political cover.
Markets like good news and
dislike bad news. But they detest uncertainty, because it undermines the
confidence of business leaders and investors that they can predict where and
when to place their bets. The outcome of Britain’s referendum remains very much
in doubt, but it’s easy to predict that a vote to leave would create damaging
uncertainties that would reverberate for years to come.
Ian Bremmer, TIME, June
13, 2016
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