Germany’s Military Patronage Of Ukraine Is A Crucial Part Of Its Grand Strategy

Andrew Korybko 

Taking the lead in containing Russia in Europe on the US’ behalf is the prerequisite for rebuilding “Fortress Europe” and thus becoming the continent’s hegemon without firing a shot

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius announced during his recent visit to Kiev that their countries will jointly develop “deep strike” capabilities. RT’s article about this major move reminded readers that “Berlin has emerged as Kiev’s largest single military donor after the US switched from donating weapons directly to Ukraine to selling it to Kiev’s other NATO backers which hand them over. Germany spent around €20 billion ($23.5 billion) on weapons for Ukraine from January 2022 to February 2026”.

Germany’s military patronage of Ukraine is a crucial part of its grand strategy and has been in the making since summer 2023. In brief, former Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s hegemonic manifesto from December 2022 made clear his country’s ambitions to recreate what’s been described elsewhere as “Fortress Europe” in current geopolitical conditions. This necessitates building the largest army in Europe, which it’s in the process of doing, and exerting military influence over Ukraine to threaten Russia.

From the perspective of Germany’s permanent military, intelligence, and diplomatic bureaucracies, their country now bears “responsibility for Europe” per the title of its first-ever postwar military strategy from late April. Its publication was followed by influential Under Secretary of War for Policy Elbridge Colby, considered to be the military-strategic brain behind Trump 2.0, praising Germany for “taking the leading role” in the transformation to “NATO 3.0”. Here are 15 background briefings from the past four years:

* 20 July 2022: “Germany’s Century-Long Plot To Capture Control Of Europe Is Almost Complete”

* 7 December 2022: “Olaf Scholz’s Manifesto For Foreign Affairs Magazine Confirms Germany’s Hegemonic Ambitions”

* 25 April 2023: “Germany’s New Anti-Russian Role Is Partially Due To Its Regional Competition With Poland”

* 27 April 2023: “Russia Needs To Once Again Brace Itself For A Prolonged Rivalry With Germany”

* 16 August 2023: “Germany’s Promised Military Patronage Of Ukraine Ramps Up Its Regional Competition With Poland”

* 23 September 2023: “Poland Hinted That Germany Is To Blame For Its Dispute With Ukraine”

* 2 October 2023: “Morawiecki Suspects That Zelensky Struck A Deal With Germany Behind Poland’s Back”

* 24 November 2023: “NATO’s Proposed ‘Military Schengen’ Is A Thinly Disguised German Power Play Over Poland”

* 19 January 2024: “Germany Is Rebuilding ‘Fortress Europe’ To Assist The US’ ‘Pivot (Back) To Asia’”

* 19 March 2024: “Poland Is Poised To Play An Indispensable Role In Germany’s ‘Fortress Europe’”

* 5 July 2024: “Germany Is Preparing To Assume Partial Responsibility For Poland’s Eastern Border Security”

* 25 April 2025: “Evaluating Foreign Affairs’ Warning About The Risks Of An Emboldened & Remilitarized Germany”

* 7 January 2026: “Germany Is Competing With Poland To Lead Russia’s Containment”

* 8 May 2026: “Reviewing Medvedev’s Article About Germany’s Remilitarization”

* 12 May 2026: “Why Might Germany Replace The US As Russia’s Perceived Top Adversary?”

What they demonstrate is that Germany immediately began moving in this direction, and particularly as regards its military patronage of Ukraine in a power flex vis-à-vis historic rival Poland, after Scholz’s “Zeitenwende speech” that he gave in late February 2022 shortly after the special operation began. Without elbowing Poland out of Ukraine, which their latest “deep strike” pact proves has already happened in the military-strategic sense, Germany wouldn’t be able to rebuild “Fortress Europe”.

To be sure, Poland hasn’t abandoned its plans to restore its lost Great Power status and at least re-establish its sphere of influence over the Baltic States, and the potential return of German-skeptic conservative control over parliament after fall 2027’s next elections could intensify their rivalry. Nevertheless, with German-friendly liberals in power till then with the exception of the presidency, Poland is expected to fall further behind Germany in their struggle for military influence over Ukraine.

The only ways in which this scenario is offset are if Russia removes all foreign military influence over Ukraine or the US decides to restore its own there that it ceded to Germany ahead of reprioritizing the Western Hemisphere and Indo-Pacific per the National Defense Strategy. If Germany solidifies its military influence over Ukraine, especially if Poland’s ruling liberals succeed in fully subordinating it to Germany, then “Fortress Europe” will be built and Germany will become Europe’s hegemon without firing a shot. 

Andrew Korybko, Substack, May 19, 2026 

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