Budanov’s & Zaluzhny’s Factions Are Surpassing Zelensky’s In Influence

Andrew Korybko 

The trend is that Zelensky’s oligarchic faction is declining as the intelligence and military ones respectively represented by Budanov and Zaluzhny rise with all that entails for Ukraine’s future

Several factions exist within Ukraine. The main ones are Zelensky’s ruling clique (who himself represents a collection of oligarchic interests whose engagement with him used to be managed by Yermak), former Commander-in-Chief-turned-Ambassador-to-the-UK Zaluzhny (and the armed forces in general), and former GUR chief-turned-Chief-of-Staff Budanov (who still represents the intelligence faction). Their interplay is becoming more complicated just as Ukraine’s diplomatic and political dynamics are too.

The Economist recently reported that “Divisions are emerging within Ukraine’s delegation. One wing, centred on Mr Budanov, believes Ukraine’s interests are best served by a swift American-led agreement, and fears the window for action may soon close. But another wing, apparently still influenced by the controversial former chief of staff Andriy Yermak, who departed in a corruption scandal, is much less keen. Mr Zelensky appears to be balancing between them, while also having his own ideas.”

This was then followed by the New York Times reporting that “In negotiations over recent weeks, officials have discussed the idea of forming a demilitarized zone controlled by neither army…To make it easier for both sides to accept the idea, negotiators have also discussed forming a free-trade zone in any possible demilitarized area.” In light of The Economist’s report right beforehand, this suggests that Budanov’s faction is pushing its agenda at the expense of the Yermak-aligned one that’s associated with Zelensky.

Right after, the Associated Press published an interview with Zaluzhny where he revealed that “dozens of agents from Ukraine’s domestic intelligence service raided Zaluzhnyi’s office” sometime in 2022. He also called Yermak at the time and threatened that “I will fight you and have already called in reinforcements to the center of Kyiv for support.” Zaluzhny considered the raid a threat. This revelation at this sensitive moment in the peace process suggests that he’ll run for the presidency once elections are finally held.

On that topic, the Financial Times reported in early February shortly before all the abovementioned reports that “Zelenskyy planning elections in Ukraine and vote on peace deal”, but then he himself later said that he doesn’t think that the public would support any deal that entails a Ukrainian withdrawal. In any case, all of this is already enough to grasp a more solid understanding of Ukraine’s diplomatic dynamics, its political ones, and the evolving interplay between them.

Zelensky’s faction has been weakened by Yermak’s resignation and replacement with Budanov, which has given the latter more influence over him. This explains why he’s reportedly more open to a deal and hasn’t stopped Budanov from negotiating creative solutions to the Donbass Question. Zaluzhny now senses that the conflict might soon end, thus contextualizing the timing of his interview and revelation therein. The trend is that Zelensky’s faction is declining as the intelligence and military ones rise.

In the event that a series of compromises soon end the conflict, then elections will likely be announced shortly after, in which case Zaluzhny is expected to run and Budanov could leverage the influence he still wields over the intelligence services to prevent Zelensky from rigging the vote. Zelensky’s expected loss would then likely lead to Zaluzhny and Budanov formalizing their alliance, which would facilitate Ukraine’s transformation into the Israeli-like military state that Zelensky and Zaluzhny earlier envisaged. 

Andrew Korybko, Substack, February 19, 2026

Anteriores:
Rubio’s Munich Speech Detailed Trump 2.0’s Envisaged New World Order 
Orban Is Right: Ukraine Has Truly Become Hungary’s Enemy 
The US Weaponized Russophobic Paranoia & Energy Geopolitics To Capture Control Of Europe 
How Will Key Countries Respond To The US’ Attempted Restoration Of Unipolarity? 
Nawrocki Strongly Alluded To The Significant Non-Military Threat That Germany Poses To Poland 
The Minneapolis Insurgency Poses A Very Serious Challenge For The Federal Government 
The US’ Acquisition Of Greenland Could Lead To A Deal Over Canada’s Arctic Islands