Stratfor
Summary
New intelligence indicates
forces in Gaza may be manufacturing long-range rockets locally. If this is the
case, a significant ground force offers the Israelis the best chance of finding
and neutralizing the factories making these weapons. Meanwhile, Israel
continues its airstrikes on Gaza, and Gaza continues its long-range rocket
attacks on major Israeli population centers, though Israel claims its Iron Dome
defense system has intercepted most of the rockets.
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An Israeli rocket fired from
the Iron Dome in Tel Aviv on Nov. 17. Photo: Uriel Sinai/Getty Image
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Analysis
Israel appears to be
positioning itself for a ground operation, perhaps as early as the night of
Nov. 17. The Israeli Cabinet on Nov. 16 approved Defense Minister Ehud Barak's
request to call up 75,000 reservists, significantly more than during Operation
Cast Lead in 2008-2009. The Israeli army meanwhile has also sought to
strengthen its presence on the borders with Gaza. Primary roads leading to Gaza
and running parallel to Sinai have been declared closed military zones. Tanks,
armored personnel carriers, self-propelled artillery and troops continue to
stream to the border, and many units already appear to be in position.
During Operation Cast Lead,
the Israelis transitioned to the ground phase around 8:00 p.m. on Jan. 3, 2009.
Going in during dark hours allows the IDF to take advantage of its superior
night-fighting equipment and training, including the use of night vision
goggles and thermal optics.
The Israeli air force remained
active throughout the night of Nov. 16-17, striking at targets across the Gaza
Strip including key Hamas ministries, police stations and tunnels near the
border crossing with Egypt. The IAF reportedly carried out strikes in Rafah's
al-Sulan and al-Zahour neighborhoods, as well as east of the al-Maghazi refugee
camp. According to IDF reports, the air force carried out a rapid and
coordinated military strike, targeting approximately 70 underground
medium-range rocket-launching sites in the less than an hour. The IDF claims
direct hits were confirmed. The IAF will increasingly target Hamas militant
defenses ahead of any ground invasion. Already the IAF has bombed militant
defensive positions, particularly in the northern part of the Gaza Strip.
Meanwhile, Hamas and other
militant factions in Gaza have been actively striking back at Israel. More than
80 rockets have been launched from Gaza over the past 24 hours. Of the rockets
launched Nov. 17, approximately 57 landed in Israel. According to the IDF, a
total of 640 rockets have been launched since Nov. 14, with 410 landing in
Israel. A long-range rocket was fired from Gaza toward Tel Aviv at
approximately 4:45 p.m. local time Nov. 17 but was successfully intercepted by
the recently deployed Iron Dome anti-rocket defense system in the area. Hamas
continues to target areas around Ashkelon, Ashdod and Beersheva, with the Iron
Dome system intercepting five rockets over Ashkelon at 5:15 p.m. The majority
of rockets launched from Gaza appear to be of shorter range than the Fajr-5.
The IDF has stated its Iron Dome interceptors have so far successfully
intercepted 90 percent of the rockets, though this may be an exaggeration.
One of the long-range rockets
was intercepted by the newly installed Iron Dome battery in the Tel Aviv area.
A Stratfor source has indicated that the rocket was not a Fajr-5, but was a
locally manufactured long-range rocket in Hamas' arsenal.
If militants in Gaza are now
able to locally manufacture their own long-range rockets that can target Tel
Aviv and other major Israeli cities, it would be a worrisome development for
Israel. Thus far, Israel has been able to focus its efforts on limiting the
supply of these rockets to Gaza through interdiction efforts, such as the
alleged Oct. 23 strike on the Yarmouk arms factory in Sudan. But if Palestinian
militants can manufacture long-range rockets in Gaza, it will be much more
difficult for Israel to restrict Gaza's inventory of these rockets. Beyond
rocket launch sites and caches, which Israel is currently targeting with its
airstrikes, it would need to target production sites and those who would be
responsible for manufacturing the rockets.
Furthermore, it will be
significantly harder for Israeli intelligence to form an accurate picture of
the number of these rockets locally constructed in Gaza. We have already seen
that Israeli intelligence likely did not anticipate how many long-range rockets
had escaped its first wave of strikes, and the fact that Hamas may have been
producing these weapons could explain Israel's lack of complete information.
Hamas recognizes that these
long-range rocket attacks have only increased the likelihood and intensity of
an Israeli ground incursion. A significant ground force offers the Israelis the
best chance of finding and neutralizing the factories making these long-range
rockets as well as the shorter-range Qassams. Hamas and the other militants
therefore are actively preparing their defenses for the anticipated incursion
and are likely laying improvised explosive devices, setting up road blocks and
defensive emplacements and sorting out their ranks and tasks.
Hamas has already announced
that its Al Murabiteen units, consisting of five brigades spread across Gaza,
will be concentrated in the border region to limit Israeli penetration into the
Gaza Strip. Learning from Hezbollah's example in 2006, special units of Hamas
are relying heavily on tunnels to maintain communications. Should Israel be
drawn into more densely populated areas of Gaza in pursuit of weapons storage
and manufacturing facilities, Hamas has also reportedly prepared its suicide
bombers, known as Istishadiyeen, to raise the cost for Israel in an urban
battle.
"Updateon the Israel-Gaza Conflict is republished with permission of
Stratfor.", November 17, 2012 – 18:25 GMT
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