Ukraine’s Corruption Scandal Might Pave The Way For Peace If It Takes Yermak Down

Andrew Korybko 

He’s Zelensky’s powerbroker so his downfall could undo the already shaky alliance between the armed forces, the oligarchs, the secret police, and parliament that keeps Zelensky in power, thus pressuring him into peace, especially if his warmongering grey cardinal is no longer pushing him to keep fighting

It was earlier assessed here that Ukraine’s $100 million energy graft scandal might only result in a cabinet reshuffle at most, the sentiment of which RT chief Margarita Simonyan shared when writing on X “But we all know it won’t” in response to The Spectator predicting that it might bring Zelensky down. The events of the past week warrant a re-evaluation after members of the ruling party demanded the resignation of his powerful Chief of Staff Andrey Yermak on the grounds that he knew about this racket.

This coincided with Axios’ report that the US and Russia have been secretly working on a framework agreement for ending the Ukrainian Conflict, which Politico then reported could be agreed to “by the end of this month — and possibly ‘as soon as this week.’” The latter’s source also allegedly told them that “We don’t really care about the Europeans. It’s about Ukraine accepting”, which they said it might very well do since the plan will essentially “be presented to Zelensky as a fait accompli.”

Politico’s reporter elaborated that “They feel that Ukraine is in the position right now, given the corruption scandals that have been plaguing Zelenskyy, given where the battle lines are at this moment, that Ukraine is in a position where … they feel they can get them to accept this deal.” Accordingly, it can be reassessed that this corruption scandal championed by the US-backed “National Anti-Corruption Bureau” might facilitate an end an end to the conflict, especially if Yermak goes down as a result.

He’s considered to be Zelensky’s powerbroker so his downfall could undo the already shaky alliance between the armed forces, the oligarchs, the secret police, and parliament that keeps Zelensky in power. Zelensky’s imprisoned former ally Igor Kolomoysky claimed that Timur Mindich, Zelensky’s longtime business partner at the center of this scandal who fled the country to avoid imminent arrest after being tipped off, is “a classic fall guy.” This suggests that Yermak might be the one who managed everything.

Extrapolating upon this hypothesis, that would explain why the EU is downplaying this corruption scandal, spinning it as supposed proof that Ukraine’s state institutions are working properly, and actively trying to counter the spread of facts in relation to it. Yermak is Zelensky’s grey cardinal and suspected of being the reason why the Ukrainian leader continually rejects peace. If he goes down as a result of this scandal, then peace might finally be possible. He could also take down his European partners too.

After all, some of their officials might have been profiting from this graft scandal or others that he’s possibly involved in, while their intelligence services must have known about the scale of this corruption. If Yermak vindictively spills the beans, provided of course that Zelensky turns on him under pressure from the ruling party (which might be supported by the US as part of a campaign to get him to agree to whatever peace deal that they soon present), then it could lead to political scandals all across Europe.

With this latest insight in mind, it can therefore be assessed that Ukraine’s corruption scandal might pressure Zelensky into a peace deal, but only if the aforesaid sequence of events unfolds. The speed with which everything has thus far unfolded, especially with respect to his ruling party turning against Yermak and the latest reports about the US and Russia secretly working on a framework agreement for ending the conflict, makes this a credible scenario. Everything will certainly be clearer by the end of the month. 

Andrew Korybko, Substack, November 19, 2025 

Anteriores:
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What’s The Real Reason Why The Economist Wants Europe To Spend $400 Billion More On Ukraine? 
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