The FSB Just Foiled What Could Have Been A False Flag Provocation For The Ages

Andrew Korybko 

Corrupting a MiG-31 pilot armed with Kinzhal hypersonic missiles into defecting, only to then shoot him down near what’ll be NATO’s largest airbase in Europe, risked sparking World War III

Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) accused Ukraine and the UK of plotting a spectacular false flag provocation that could have led to led to war with NATO. According to them, they sought to corrupt a MiG-31 fighter jet pilot armed with Kinzhal hypersonic missiles into defecting, but then he’d be shot down near Romania’s seaside city of Constanta. Importantly, NATO’s largest airbase in Europe is being built nearby, so the incident could have resulted in an unprecedented exchange of hostilities.

This revelation follows Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) warning that false flag provocations were being cooked up in the Baltic and Poland, the purpose of which would be to prompt an escalation of tensions with NATO that the orchestrators expect will end with Russian strategic concessions. In connection with this, they believe that Trump would feel compelled to intervene, whether saber-rattling to the aforementioned end or possibly even authorizing direct US involvement in a “retaliatory strike”.

Of course, it goes without saying that everything could easily spiral out of control into World War III since Russia’s voluntary submission to the West under such coercion can’t be taken for granted, ergo the importance of the FSB thwarting what could have been a false flag provocation for the ages. The possibly apocalyptical stakes show how desperate Ukraine and the UK have become over the past year since they began plotting this operation. The situation wasn’t even as bad for Ukraine back then as it is now.

Nevertheless, it should also be said that Trump’s decision last month to once again escalate against Russia increases the chances that he’d be manipulated by their false flag provocation into playing some role or another, thus raising the risk of a hot Russian-US war that could quickly go nuclear. After all, he’s now inclined to believe that it’s Putin who’s the desperate warmonger hellbent on triggering a dangerous escalation that he’d then try to leverage for delaying his inevitable loss, not Zelensky.

The reality has always been the opposite, however, since Putin almost always refuses to escalate after every Western-backed Ukrainian provocation over the last 3.5 years. The only exceptions were him authorizing strikes against military-relevant critical infrastructure after the Crimean Bridge bombing and his one-off use of the Oreshniks in response to the Anglo-American Axis allowing Ukraine to use their long-range missiles inside of Russia. His intention was to deter them from further escalations.

These exceptions to the rule above governing Putin’s behavior, namely that he’ll exercise a saintly degree of patience after every Western-backed Ukrainian provocation for the sake of avoiding World War III even at the expense of upsetting some of Russia’s supporters, were significantly responses. They weren’t proactive escalations, which he has no record of initiating since the start of the special operation, so the hypothetical success of this joint Ukrainian-UK false flag would have been suspiciously uncharacteristic.

Even so, it would have probably still duped Trump for the reasons that were explained, which is it can be claimed that the FSB might have just averted World War III. Regardless of one’s opinion about the seriousness of this provocation, it’s likely that others are in the works, all with the intent of triggering a dangerous escalation out of desperation to coerce Russia into concessions. The FSB will therefore continue doing its utmost to foil all these false flag provocations that could spiral out of control. 

Andrew Korybko, Substack, November 11, 2025 

Anteriores:
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What’s The Real Reason Why The Economist Wants Europe To Spend $400 Billion More On Ukraine? 
Five Takeaways From Ukraine’s Encirclement 
NATO’s Three-Pronged Response To The Latest Russian Scare Raises The Risk Of A Larger War 
The Stage Is Set For A US-Instigated Security Dilemma Between The Eurasian Rimland & Heartland 
Five Reasons Why Trump Is Once Again Escalating Against Russia