Andrew Korybko
The processes that are unfolding will take a lot of
time to complete, perhaps even a generation or longer, so expectations of a
swift transition to full-blown multipolarity should be tempered
The recent SCO Leaders’ Summit
in Tianjin drew renewed attention to this organization, which began as a means
for settling border disputes between China and some former Soviet Republics but
then evolved into a hybrid security-economic group. Around two dozen leaders
attended the latest event, including Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who
paid his first visit to China in seven years. Non-Western media heralded the
summit as an inflection point in the global systemic transition to
multipolarity.
While the SCO is more
invigorated than ever given the nascent Sino-Indo rapprochement that the US
was inadvertently responsible for,
and BRICS is
nowadays a household name across the world, both organizations will only
gradually transform global governance instead of abruptly like some expect. For
starters, they’re comprised of very diverse members who can only realistically
agree on broad points of cooperation, which are in any case strictly voluntary
since nothing that they declare is legally binding.
What brings SCO and BRICS countries together, and there’s a growing overlap between them (both in terms of members and partners), is their shared goal of breaking the West’s de facto monopoly over global governance so that everything becomes fairer for the World Majority. To that end, they seek to accelerate financial multipolarity processes via BRICS so as to acquire the tangible influence required for implementing reforms, but this also requires averting future domestic instability scenarios via the SCO.
Nevertheless, the BRICS
Bank complies
with the West’s anti-Russian sanctions due to most members’ complex
economic interdependence with it, and there’s also reluctance
to hasten de-dollarization for precisely that reason. As for the SCO,
its intelligence-sharing mechanisms only concern unconventional threats (i.e.
terrorism, separatism, and extremism) and are hamstrung to a large degree by
the Indo-Pak rivalry, while sovereignty-related concerns prevent the group from
becoming another “Warsaw Pact”.
Despite these limitations, the
World Majority is still working more closely together than ever in pursuit of
their goal of gradually transforming global governance, which has become
especially urgent due to Trump 2.0’s casual use of force (against Iran and as
threatened against Venezuela) and tariff wars. China is at the center of these
efforts, but that doesn’t mean that it’ll dominate them, otherwise proudly
sovereign India and Russia wouldn’t have gone along with this if they expected
that to be the case.
The processes that are
unfolding will take a lot of time to complete, perhaps even a generation or
longer, due in no small part to leading countries like China’s and India’s
complex economic interdependence with the West that can’t abruptly be ended
without dealing immense damage to their own interests. Observers should
therefore temper any wishful
thinking hopes of a swift transition to full-blown multipolarity in
order to avoid being deeply disappointed and possibly becoming despondent as a
result.
Looking forward, the future of
global governance will be shaped by the struggle between the West and the World
Majority, which respectively want to retain their de facto monopoly and
gradually reform this system so that it returns to its UN-centric roots (albeit
with some changes). Neither maximalist scenario might ultimately enter into
force, however, so alternative institutions centered on specific regions like
the SCO vis-à-vis Eurasia and the AU vis-à-vis Africa might gradually replace
the UN in some regards.
Andrew Korybko, Substack, September 3, 2025
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