Andrew Korybko
Tensions risk spiraling out of control if Trump isn’t
disabused of the CIA’s false narrative that Ukraine’s recent large-scale drone
attack against Novgorod Region wasn’t an attempt to assassinate Putin
Trump retweeted an
editorial from the New
York Post on New Year’s Eve about how “Putin ‘attack’ bluster shows
Russia is the one standing in the way of peace”, which followed CIA chief John
Ratcliffe briefing him about the agency’s assessment that Ukraine supposedly
didn’t attempt to assassinate Putin. Several days prior, Putin informed Trump
during their latest call that nearly
100 Ukrainian attack drones were intercepted near his residence in
Northern Russia on the day that Trump hosted Zelensky.
Trump expressed anger when asked
about this by the press and reminded everyone how he decided against
giving Ukraine Tomahawks,
seemingly implying that this might have saved Putin’s life. Ukraine predictably
denied that it targeted Putin, with Zelensky lashing
out at India and other countries whose officials condemned the attack
that he insisted didn’t happen. Trump is now evidently of the same mind after
Ratcliffe’s briefing, which convinced him that Ukraine didn’t attempt to
assassinate Putin.
According to the CIA chief, an attack did indeed take place at the time that Russia claimed and in the same region as Putin’s residence in Northern Russia, but it supposedly only targeted a nearby military site. If Trump disagreed with this assessment, then he wouldn’t have retweeted the New York Post’s editorial condemning Putin of all people over this incident, conspiratorially speculating that the Russian leader made it all up “as an excuse to reject Trump’s progress on peace” and “spit in America’s eye.”
In the interests of
transparency and wanting to prevent the CIA from manipulating Trump into once
again escalating against Putin, Russia’s military intelligence
chief handed over to a
representative of the US military attaché materials containing the downed
drones’ decoded route data. He also
said that this evidence “unequivocally and accurately confirmed that
the target of the attack was the complex of buildings of the residence of the
President of the Russian Federation in the Novgorod region.”
Nevertheless, this evidence
might not disabuse Trump of Ratcliffe’s false narrative since he’s still
dependent on the CIA’s assessment of the downed drones’ decoded route data.
Seeing as how they lied about the attack’s target to misportray Putin as trying
to manipulate Trump, they’re unlikely to reverse their narrative, especially
after publicly receiving evidence from Russia. They’re therefore expected to
stick to the script and misportray this evidence as yet another attempt by
Putin to manipulate Trump.
Foreign Ministry spokeswoman
Maria Zakharova warned that
Russia’s response “will not be diplomatic”, but if Trump doesn’t believe its
side of the story, then he can be manipulated by the CIA into perceiving this
as “unprovoked aggression” and thus misled into escalating further. The New
York Times’ recent report on Trump’s Ukraine policy revealed that the CIA
earlier convinced him to authorize them to aid Ukrainian attacks against
Russian refineries and its “shadow fleet” so the escalation risk is very real.
Therein lies the importance of
convincing Trump that Ratcliffe lied to him. If that can be achieved, then the
US likely won’t overreact to Russia’s retaliation, and perhaps Trump might
finally force Zelensky to withdraw from the rest of Donbass as a concession for
averting Russia’s retaliation. If Trump remains under Ratcliffe’s influence and
Russia’s promised retaliation is more than symbolic, however, then he might be
manipulated by him into being the one who reverses his own hard-earned progress
on peace.
Andrew Korybko, Substack,
January 2, 2026
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